# Crypto factor board

Every recorded metric in its historical band with the median BTC move that followed days in that band versus the base rate; n >= 30 gate, medians not means.

Source: https://bykaranteli.com/factors · attribute to ByKaranteli and quote the timestamp.

67 of 153 recorded metrics have enough history; bands with fewer than 30 matured days show no outcome. Built 2026-10-18T00:50:06.704Z.

| Metric | Today | Band | Days | Median BTC next 7d | Base rate | Edge (pp) |
| --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| insurance_fund_gate_musd | $256M | Very high (5/5) | 34 | -1.89% | +0.58% | -2.47 |
| theme_l1_index | 40.2 | Low (2/5) | 91 | +2.02% | -0.36% | 2.38 |
| theme_ai_index | 24.1 | Mid (3/5) | 90 | -2.69% | -0.36% | -2.32 |
| theme_meme_index | 17.2 | Very low (1/5) | 90 | +1.16% | -0.36% | 1.52 |
| theme_defi_index | 56.3 | High (4/5) | 85 | -1.80% | -0.36% | -1.44 |
| theme_depin_index | 19.1 | Mid (3/5) | 85 | -1.80% | -0.36% | -1.44 |
| theme_l2_index | 12.7 | Mid (3/5) | 84 | -1.80% | -0.36% | -1.43 |
| theme_quantum_index | 121.7 | Very high (5/5) | 84 | -1.61% | -0.36% | -1.25 |
| fred_walcl_busd | $6756B | High (4/5) | 153 | +1.65% | +0.65% | 1.00 |
| theme_rwa_index | 34.6 | Mid (3/5) | 87 | -1.17% | -0.36% | -0.81 |
| btc_pi_cycle_111dma | $72873 | Very high (5/5) | 1051 | -0.02% | +0.78% | -0.80 |
| quantum_watchset_btc | 1,710,963 BTC | Low (1/3) | 35 | -0.20% | +0.60% | -0.80 |
| fred_dff | 3.88% | High (4/5) | 1074 | +0.01% | +0.78% | -0.77 |
| fred_rrp_busd | $0B | Very low (1/5) | 672 | +1.27% | +0.58% | 0.69 |
| vpin_btc | 0.161 | High (3/3) | 47 | -0.92% | -0.25% | -0.67 |
| etf_btc_net_flow_usd | -$82M | Mid (2/3) | 115 | -0.96% | -0.30% | -0.66 |
| btc_pi_cycle_350dma_x2 | $153821 | Very high (5/5) | 1004 | +0.06% | +0.71% | -0.64 |
| funding_btc_daily_pct | +0.017% | Mid (3/5) | 1110 | -0.12% | +0.41% | -0.52 |
| btc_golden_ratio_multiple | 1.06 | Low (2/5) | 1004 | +0.20% | +0.71% | -0.51 |
| kraken_btc_premium_pct | -0.134% | Very low (1/5) | 151 | -0.17% | +0.30% | -0.47 |
| btc_hashrate_ehs | 962 EH/s | Very high (5/5) | 638 | +0.07% | +0.52% | -0.45 |
| btc_difficulty_t | 140.6T | Very high (5/5) | 638 | +0.07% | +0.52% | -0.45 |
| btc_profitable_days_pct | 91.4% | Mid (3/5) | 1073 | +0.34% | +0.78% | -0.44 |
| fred_sonia_pct | 3.73% | High (3/3) | 1237 | +0.32% | +0.75% | -0.43 |
| coinbase_premium_pct | -0.138% | Very low (1/5) | 663 | +0.09% | +0.51% | -0.42 |
| btc_ma_200w | $66705 | Very high (5/5) | 794 | +0.29% | +0.71% | -0.41 |
| stablecoin_total_mcap_busd | $305B | Very high (5/5) | 642 | +0.03% | +0.40% | -0.37 |
| btc_s2f_ratio | 122.4 | Very high (5/5) | 1073 | +0.43% | +0.78% | -0.35 |
| btc_ma_200w_multiple | 1.22 | Low (2/5) | 794 | +1.05% | +0.71% | 0.34 |
| fred_ecb_deposit_rate_pct | 2.50% | High (3/3) | 1680 | +0.53% | +0.78% | -0.25 |
| fear_greed | 55 | High (4/5) | 603 | +0.66% | +0.43% | 0.23 |
| fred_dgs2_pct | 4.77% | Very high (5/5) | 733 | +0.50% | +0.72% | -0.23 |
| dvol_btc | 37.7 | Very low (1/5) | 400 | -0.07% | +0.15% | -0.22 |
| fred_t10y2y_pp | +0.35 pp | Low (2/5) | 747 | +0.50% | +0.72% | -0.22 |
| fred_dgs10 | 5.10% | Very high (5/5) | 731 | +0.54% | +0.72% | -0.19 |
| btc_puell_multiple | 1.04 | Mid (3/5) | 1001 | +0.87% | +0.72% | 0.15 |
| fred_dgs30_pct | 5.43% | Very high (5/5) | 735 | +0.57% | +0.72% | -0.15 |
| fred_dgs3mo_pct | 4.28% | Very high (5/5) | 736 | +0.58% | +0.72% | -0.15 |
| btc_mayer_multiple | 1.12 | Mid (3/5) | 1034 | +0.87% | +0.74% | 0.13 |
| etf_sol_net_flow_usd | -$12.7M | Very low (1/5) | 44 | -0.28% | -0.41% | 0.13 |
| fred_broad_dollar_index | 121.60 | Very high (5/5) | 736 | +0.70% | +0.74% | -0.04 |
| btc_ma_2y | $89156 | Very high (5/5) | 928 | +0.47% | +0.51% | -0.04 |
| btc_ma_2y_x5 | $445782 | Very high (5/5) | 928 | +0.47% | +0.51% | -0.04 |
| btc_pi_cycle_ratio | 0.474 | Low (2/5) | 1004 | +0.71% | +0.71% | 0.01 |
| leadlag_btc_coinbase_binance_asym | +0.040 | High (3/3) | 23 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| leadlag_eth_coinbase_binance_asym | -0.031 | Low (1/3) | 20 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| quantum_exposed_btc | 1,931,625 BTC | Low (1/3) | 15 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| quantum_exposed_pct_value | 9.61% | Low (1/3) | 15 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| btc_atm_iv_30d_pct | 35.8% | High (3/3) | 22 | thin | +0.58% | n/a |
| eth_atm_iv_30d_pct | 48.4% | Mid (2/3) | 19 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| btc_25d_skew_30d_pp | +2.98 pp | High (3/3) | 17 | thin | +0.58% | n/a |
| eth_25d_skew_30d_pp | +2.84 pp | High (3/3) | 18 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| btc_implied_move_30d_pct | 10.28% | High (3/3) | 22 | thin | +0.58% | n/a |
| eth_implied_move_30d_pct | 13.87% | Mid (2/3) | 19 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| btc_max_pain_front_usd | $82,500 | High (3/3) | 16 | thin | +0.58% | n/a |
| eth_max_pain_front_usd | $2,420 | Mid (2/3) | 23 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| whale_buy_share_pct | 46.4% | Very low (1/5) | 12 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| psicharge_score | 91 | Very high (5/5) | 28 | thin | -0.36% | n/a |
| slippage_btc_1m_bps | 0.3 bps | Very low (1/5) | 13 | thin | +0.58% | n/a |
| btc_fee_block_avg_satvb | 2.0 sat/vB | Mid (2/5) | 26 | thin | +0.56% | n/a |
| insurance_binance_musd | $2436M | Very high (5/5) | 6 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| insurance_bybit_musd | $530M | Very high (5/5) | 6 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| btc_miner_revenue_btc | 462.0 BTC | High (4/5) | 18 | thin | +0.56% | n/a |
| altseason_index | 76 | Very high (5/5) | 9 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| euphoria_index | 56 | Very low (1/5) | 10 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| btc_dominance_pct | 59.5% | Very high (5/5) | 6 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |
| eth_dominance_pct | 10.7% | Very low (1/5) | 8 | thin | +0.60% | n/a |

Conditional distributions over the recorded history. History, not a forecast.

## Related

- https://bykaranteli.com/research/band-conditioned-returns
- https://bykaranteli.com/indices

Everything in one fetch: https://bykaranteli.com/llms-full.txt