# Quantum-exposed BTC: what happened next when it sat where it sits today

This page takes one indicator from our own daily record, splits its history into five equal bands, and shows what BTC did over the next 1, 3 and 7 days from each band, next to the base rate of all days. It is a distribution of what happened, not a forecast: a band with fewer than 30 days is marked thin and should be read as noise.

Source: https://bykaranteli.com/factors/quantum_exposed_btc · attribute to ByKaranteli and quote the timestamp.
Snapshot taken 2026-10-17.

- Today's value (2026-10-17): 1,931,625 BTC
- Today's band: Low (1 of 3)
- Days recorded: 66, since 2026-08-13

## What followed each band

Median forward BTC return from the days in each band. Up share is the share of those days with a positive 7-day return. The base row is every recorded day.

| Band | Range | Days | BTC next 1d (median %) | BTC next 3d (median %) | BTC next 7d (median %) | Up share 7d (%) |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Low (today) (thin) | 1,931,625 BTC to 1,933,831 BTC | 15 | +0.0% | +0.1% | -0.4% | 47 |
| Mid (thin) | 1,933,831 BTC to 1,935,662 BTC | 22 | +0.2% | +1.0% | +2.2% | 68 |
| High (thin) | 1,935,662 BTC to 1,937,743 BTC | 22 | +0.1% | +0.2% | -0.0% | 50 |
| All days (base rate) | n/a | 59 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.6% | 56 |

Bands with fewer than 30 days are shown for completeness and flagged; do not read an edge into them.

## Reading today

Today sits in the "low" band of the recorded history so far. Not enough history in this band yet for an honest read (n=15, we show nothing below 30).

## The series (newest 30 recorded days)

| Date (UTC) | Quantum-exposed BTC |
| --- | ---: |
| 2026-09-19 | 1,933,691 BTC |
| 2026-09-20 | 1,933,527 BTC |
| 2026-09-21 | 1,933,394 BTC |
| 2026-09-22 | 1,932,945 BTC |
| 2026-09-23 | 1,932,670 BTC |
| 2026-09-24 | 1,932,705 BTC |
| 2026-09-25 | 1,933,289 BTC |
| 2026-09-26 | 1,933,439 BTC |
| 2026-09-27 | 1,933,476 BTC |
| 2026-09-28 | 1,933,214 BTC |
| 2026-09-29 | 1,934,039 BTC |
| 2026-09-30 | 1,933,821 BTC |
| 2026-10-01 | 1,933,737 BTC |
| 2026-10-02 | 1,934,407 BTC |
| 2026-10-03 | 1,933,831 BTC |
| 2026-10-04 | 1,935,121 BTC |
| 2026-10-05 | 1,935,404 BTC |
| 2026-10-06 | 1,935,340 BTC |
| 2026-10-07 | 1,936,686 BTC |
| 2026-10-08 | 1,936,851 BTC |
| 2026-10-09 | 1,937,009 BTC |
| 2026-10-10 | 1,932,596 BTC |
| 2026-10-11 | 1,932,413 BTC |
| 2026-10-12 | 1,932,529 BTC |
| 2026-10-13 | 1,932,482 BTC |
| 2026-10-14 | 1,932,243 BTC |
| 2026-10-15 | 1,932,608 BTC |
| 2026-10-16 | 1,932,095 BTC |
| 2026-10-17 | 1,931,625 BTC |
| 2026-10-18 | 1,931,819 BTC |

The page charts the last 365 days for anonymous readers; the metric-daily dataset carries the whole series.

## Methodology and honest limits

Bands are quintiles of the metric's own recorded history (five equal-count buckets), recomputed daily, so a band label such as very high means the top 20% of days we have seen, not a fixed threshold.

Forward returns use our own BTC daily close at +1, +3 and +7 calendar days. Medians and up shares are descriptive statistics of the past; nothing here is a prediction, and overlapping 7-day windows mean the effective sample is smaller than the day count.

The record starts on the date shown; for most indicators that is when we began collecting, not when the market began. Metrics with fewer than 30 days in a band carry a thin flag.


## Related

- https://bykaranteli.com/factors
- https://bykaranteli.com/data
- https://bykaranteli.com/indicators

Everything in one fetch: https://bykaranteli.com/llms-full.txt