# Dormant P2PK watch set: what happened next when it sat where it sits today

This page takes one indicator from our own daily record, splits its history into five equal bands, and shows what BTC did over the next 1, 3 and 7 days from each band, next to the base rate of all days. It is a distribution of what happened, not a forecast: a band with fewer than 30 days is marked thin and should be read as noise.

Source: https://bykaranteli.com/factors/quantum_watchset_btc · attribute to ByKaranteli and quote the timestamp.
Snapshot taken 2026-10-17.

- Today's value (2026-10-17): 1,710,963 BTC
- Today's band: Low (1 of 3)
- Days recorded: 66, since 2026-08-13

## What followed each band

Median forward BTC return from the days in each band. Up share is the share of those days with a positive 7-day return. The base row is every recorded day.

| Band | Range | Days | BTC next 1d (median %) | BTC next 3d (median %) | BTC next 7d (median %) | Up share 7d (%) |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Low (today) | 1,710,963 BTC | 35 | +0.0% | +0.0% | -0.2% | 49 |
| Mid (thin) | 1,710,963 BTC to 1,711,563 BTC | 11 | +0.2% | -0.7% | +1.2% | 64 |
| High (thin) | 1,711,563 BTC to 1,711,613 BTC | 13 | +0.6% | +2.4% | +14.0% | 69 |
| All days (base rate) | n/a | 59 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.6% | 56 |

Bands with fewer than 30 days are shown for completeness and flagged; do not read an edge into them.

## Reading today

Today sits in the "low" band of the recorded history so far. Days like this led to a median -0.2% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=35), vs +0.6% on an average day. History, not a forecast.

## The series (newest 30 recorded days)

| Date (UTC) | Dormant P2PK watch set |
| --- | ---: |
| 2026-09-19 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-20 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-21 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-22 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-23 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-24 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-25 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-26 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-27 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-28 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-29 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-09-30 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-01 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-02 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-03 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-04 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-05 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-06 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-07 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-08 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-09 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-10 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-11 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-12 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-13 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-14 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-15 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-16 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-17 | 1,710,963 BTC |
| 2026-10-18 | 1,710,963 BTC |

The page charts the last 365 days for anonymous readers; the metric-daily dataset carries the whole series.

## Methodology and honest limits

Bands are quintiles of the metric's own recorded history (five equal-count buckets), recomputed daily, so a band label such as very high means the top 20% of days we have seen, not a fixed threshold.

Forward returns use our own BTC daily close at +1, +3 and +7 calendar days. Medians and up shares are descriptive statistics of the past; nothing here is a prediction, and overlapping 7-day windows mean the effective sample is smaller than the day count.

The record starts on the date shown; for most indicators that is when we began collecting, not when the market began. Metrics with fewer than 30 days in a band carry a thin flag.


## Related

- https://bykaranteli.com/factors
- https://bykaranteli.com/data
- https://bykaranteli.com/indicators

Everything in one fetch: https://bykaranteli.com/llms-full.txt