# Liquidation cascade on 2026-10-12

On 2026-10-12 our detector flagged $625.90M of forced closures across 2 detected bursts. Everything below is read from the real liquidation feed, not estimated: these are closures the exchanges actually broadcast.

Source: https://bykaranteli.com/incidents/2026-10-12 · attribute to ByKaranteli and quote the timestamp.
Snapshot taken 2026-10-13T01:00:00.000Z.

This page documents what was liquidated, not why the move started. A cascade is the amplifier, rarely the trigger.

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Force-closed (USD) | $625.90M |
| Longs (share of total, USD) | 97%, $606.99M |
| Shorts (share of total, USD) | 3%, $18.91M |
| Bursts (30 minute windows over threshold) | 2 |

## Every burst on this day

| Window (UTC) | Total (USD) | Longs (USD) | Shorts (USD) | Coins swept | BTC move (%) |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: |
| 21:30 to 01:00 | $342.19M | $331.18M | $11.01M | ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, SOLUSDT | -1.69% |
| 22:30 to 01:00 | $283.71M | $275.80M | $7.90M | ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, SOLUSDT | -1.30% |

## Which coins got swept

Forced-closure notional per symbol, summed across the day's bursts. A coin high on this list had the most leverage sitting where price went.

| Symbol | Force-closed (USD) | Share of the day (%) |
| --- | ---: | ---: |
| ETHUSDT | $154.02M | 24.6 |
| BTCUSDT | $133.09M | 21.3 |
| SOLUSDT | $58.30M | 9.3 |
| HYPEUSDT | $21.21M | 3.4 |
| DOSUSDT | $10.23M | 1.6 |
| XRPUSDT | $5.93M | 0.9 |

## What price did

ETHUSDT minute closes around the day's largest burst, one hour either side. Every 5th minute below.

| Minute (UTC) | ETHUSDT close (USD) |
| --- | ---: |
| 2026-10-12 20:30 | 2523.81 |
| 2026-10-12 20:35 | 2522.23 |
| 2026-10-12 20:40 | 2521.62 |
| 2026-10-12 20:45 | 2522.38 |
| 2026-10-12 20:50 | 2524.58 |
| 2026-10-12 20:55 | 2520.3 |
| 2026-10-12 21:00 | 2517.66 |
| 2026-10-12 21:05 | 2511.44 |
| 2026-10-12 21:10 | 2512.38 |
| 2026-10-12 21:15 | 2510.15 |
| 2026-10-12 21:20 | 2514.29 |
| 2026-10-12 21:25 | 2514.13 |
| 2026-10-12 21:30 | 2513.86 |
| 2026-10-12 21:35 | 2510.14 |
| 2026-10-12 21:40 | 2509.99 |
| 2026-10-12 21:45 | 2484.9 |
| 2026-10-12 21:50 | 2493.4 |
| 2026-10-12 21:55 | 2489.4 |
| 2026-10-12 22:00 | 2488.6 |
| 2026-10-12 22:05 | 2494.04 |
| 2026-10-12 22:10 | 2494.95 |
| 2026-10-12 22:15 | 2493.32 |
| 2026-10-12 22:20 | 2490.89 |
| 2026-10-12 22:25 | 2488.71 |
| 2026-10-12 22:30 | 2489.28 |
| 2026-10-12 22:35 | 2487.34 |
| 2026-10-12 22:40 | 2483.82 |
| 2026-10-12 22:45 | 2481.85 |
| 2026-10-12 22:50 | 2483.15 |
| 2026-10-12 22:55 | 2480.78 |
| 2026-10-12 23:00 | 2470.26 |
| 2026-10-12 23:05 | 2453.24 |
| 2026-10-12 23:10 | 2460.83 |
| 2026-10-12 23:15 | 2460.96 |
| 2026-10-12 23:20 | 2464.38 |
| 2026-10-12 23:25 | 2461.06 |
| 2026-10-12 23:30 | 2460.92 |
| 2026-10-12 23:35 | 2453.6 |
| 2026-10-12 23:40 | 2444.07 |
| 2026-10-12 23:45 | 2447.02 |
| 2026-10-12 23:50 | 2445.31 |
| 2026-10-12 23:55 | 2444.46 |
| 2026-10-13 00:00 | 2447.15 |
| 2026-10-13 00:05 | 2435.22 |
| 2026-10-13 00:10 | 2430.33 |
| 2026-10-13 00:15 | 2432.03 |
| 2026-10-13 00:20 | 2423.72 |
| 2026-10-13 00:25 | 2420.82 |
| 2026-10-13 00:30 | 2419.94 |
| 2026-10-13 00:35 | 2431.46 |
| 2026-10-13 00:40 | 2427.95 |
| 2026-10-13 00:45 | 2422.97 |
| 2026-10-13 00:50 | 2415.01 |
| 2026-10-13 00:55 | 2424.02 |
| 2026-10-13 01:00 | 2424 |
| 2026-10-13 01:05 | 2431.15 |
| 2026-10-13 01:10 | 2432.69 |
| 2026-10-13 01:15 | 2435.58 |
| 2026-10-13 01:20 | 2448.96 |
| 2026-10-13 01:25 | 2446.79 |
| 2026-10-13 01:30 | 2451.14 |
| 2026-10-13 01:35 | 2457.21 |
| 2026-10-13 01:40 | 2456.65 |
| 2026-10-13 01:45 | 2459.69 |
| 2026-10-13 01:50 | 2459.01 |
| 2026-10-13 01:55 | 2461.95 |
| 2026-10-13 02:00 | 2463.36 |

## How a day gets a page

Our detector reads the real liquidation tape in 30 minute buckets and flags a bucket when its total forced closures exceed the larger of 30 million USD and six times the trailing median bucket, so the bar moves with market conditions. A day gets a page only when at least one bucket cleared that bar. Quiet days have no page, which is why this archive is short and will stay honest as it grows.

## Other cascade days

- Previous cascade: /md/incidents/2026-10-11
- Next cascade: /md/incidents/2026-10-13

## Related

- https://bykaranteli.com/incidents
- https://bykaranteli.com/liquidations
- https://bykaranteli.com/liqmap

Everything in one fetch: https://bykaranteli.com/llms-full.txt