Crypto market brief · 2026-08-09
BTC +0.13% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (51). US traders have bid below the global price for 95 straight days. Fear & Greed 31 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $64937 · +0.13% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.66% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 31 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 49 (BALANCED)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.3B · +$387.7M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 51/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (2918 readings), BTC averaged -0.30% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.08%: US bids below global price, day 95 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.12, 22th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: SOLUSDT open interest +10.5% with price +3.1% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 2 adding leverage, 1 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 34.2
- 24h taker premium: $309974 into calls vs $433653 into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-25DEC26-62000-P · $1.2M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.58 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $15.2M longs vs $27.7M shorts across 33,658 events
- Largest single liquidation: SOLUSDT $1.0M
- No cascade in 24h (2 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$98.8M on 2026-08-07 · day 5 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$49.6M on 2026-08-07 · day 4 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 39 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-04: hedge funds net -7,240 BTC futures contracts (-367 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 4 signals closed in 24h (0 wins / 4 losses) · aggregate net -2.86%
- Rolling 30d: 533 trades · 38.5% win rate · net profit factor 0.95