Risk Guide
Enter your capital and risk appetite, this tool uses the last 90 days of live ByKaranteli statistics to suggest a position size via a sub-Kelly fraction (half/quarter). Most competitors skip this entirely; those who try hide the formula.
Suggested Position Size
Why Kelly?
The Kelly formula gives the optimal bet fraction that maximizes expected log-wealth growth: f* = (p × b − q) / b, where p is win probability, q = 1 − p, and b is average win / average loss. In practice full Kelly can eat a large chunk of capital during a single losing run, so real-world use prefers half-Kellyor quarter-Kelly.
- Conservative (¼ Kelly): max 3 concurrent, slow growth, low drawdown.
- Balanced (½ Kelly): max 5 concurrent, the textbook default.
- Aggressive (¾ Kelly): max 8 concurrent, higher return but deeper drawdowns.
Important Notes
- This calculator is not investment advice, educational only.
- The smaller the sample, the less reliable the Kelly recommendation. ByKaranteli uses the 90-day window.
- Derivatives + leverage risk: losing all capital is possible. Never exceed max concurrent limit.
- Placing orders is your responsibility; ByKaranteli does not auto-trade.
Position sizing FAQ
How do I calculate position size for crypto futures?
Decide the maximum percentage of your account you are willing to lose if the stop hits, then divide that risk amount by the distance between entry and stop-loss. Position size = (account x risk %) / (entry - stop distance). Leverage only changes the margin you post, not the loss at the stop; size from the stop distance, never from the leverage slider.
What is the Kelly criterion in trading?
Kelly is a formula that converts your win rate and average win/loss ratio into the bankroll fraction that maximizes long-run growth. Full Kelly is aggressive and assumes your statistics are exact, so practitioners trade half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly. The calculator on this page derives all three from ByKaranteli's live 90-day statistics.
How much should I risk per trade?
Common practice for leveraged crypto is 0.5% to 2% of the account per trade. Our conservative profile corresponds to quarter-Kelly, balanced to half-Kelly; with a small or negative live edge the honest answer is to size at the minimum or not trade the signal at all. The calculator shows exactly that when the statistics do not support risk.
Does leverage change my risk?
Not by itself. Your loss at the stop is fixed by position size times stop distance; leverage determines how much margin you lock and how close the liquidation price sits. High leverage mainly adds liquidation risk before your stop can do its job, which is why the liquidation calculator pairs with this page.
Not investment advice. Kelly is a statistical tool; past statistics lose validity as market conditions change.