Is Liquidity With Crypto or Against It?

Our composite nets the dollars the big central banks have put into the system: the Fed balance sheet minus the cash the Treasury holds at the Fed and minus the overnight reverse repo, plus the ECB and Bank of Japan balance sheets in dollars. Drawn against the BTC close on a log scale.

The Fed funds effective rate against the ECB deposit facility rate, with SONIA, the Bank of England's overnight benchmark, in the table. Rate cuts and hikes set the discount rate on every risk asset.

Headline CPI and the Fed's preferred core PCE gauge, both as the change over twelve months, then the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls against the unemployment rate. The table adds core CPI, headline PCE and weekly initial jobless claims.

The Fed balance sheet against the overnight reverse repo facility, then the ECB and Bank of Japan balance sheets converted to dollars. The table adds the Treasury General Account and M2.

The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, then the 10-year minus 2-year spread against the Fed broad dollar index (the Federal Reserve Board's trade-weighted index, not the ICE index). The table adds the 3-month bill and the 30-year bond.

Total market cap of USD-pegged stablecoins since 2017. This is the dry powder that lives inside the crypto rails; sustained expansion has historically accompanied risk-on phases, sustained contraction the opposite.

Every recorded day is grouped by where this metric sat; each band shows the median BTC move that followed. Distribution, not prediction.

Today sits in the "Very high" band of 8 years of daily records. Days like this led to a median -0.2% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=647), about the same as any other day (+0.3%). No edge either way, and we say so.

Median BTC move after each band. Records since 2017-11-29 (3273 days). History, not a forecast.

Every recorded day is grouped by where this metric sat; each band shows the median BTC move that followed. Distribution, not prediction.

Today sits in the "High" band of 14 years of daily records. Days like this led to a median -0.1% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=1102), vs +0.7% on an average day. History, not a forecast.

Median BTC move after each band. Records since 2012-01-01 (5430 days). History, not a forecast.

Stablecoin supply is the total circulating market cap of USD-pegged stablecoins as aggregated by DeFiLlama, recorded daily and backfilled from their dated public history (2017-11 onward).

The official series come from FRED's API, one request per series, each carrying its original publisher: the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Department of Labor, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Values are recorded under their official observation dates, so a monthly print appears weeks after the month it describes.

Transforms are ours and stated per series: CPI and PCE are the change against the same month a year earlier, payrolls the change against the previous month, and ECB and Bank of Japan assets are converted to dollars at the Federal Reserve Board's daily exchange rate on the observation date. Daily and weekly series are revisited over a short recent window; a monthly print is written once, when it first appears.

Left out on purpose: series a private company owns (the VIX, the ICE dollar index) and rates FRED does not carry from the central bank itself (the Bank of England Bank Rate, where SONIA stands in, and the Bank of Japan policy rate).

The context tables bucket each series against its own recorded history and show the forward BTC return distribution per bucket, base-rate alongside, minimum 30 days per bucket. Correlation is not causation and we do not pretend otherwise; the tables show what happened, not what will.

FRED notice: This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.