Is Liquidity With Crypto or Against It?
Crypto trades inside a dollar-liquidity regime it does not control. This dashboard records the four series that describe that regime: stablecoin supply (the crypto-native dollar float), the Fed balance sheet and the reverse-repo facility (where system liquidity sits), and the price of money itself (Fed funds and the 10-year yield). Every series is archived daily and joined against forward BTC returns in the context tables.
Total stablecoin supply is currently $306B. The Fed funds rate stands at 3.63% with the Fed balance sheet at $6.75T. Full daily history and what followed similar readings is below.
The crypto-native dollar float
Total market cap of USD-pegged stablecoins since 2017. This is the dry powder that lives inside the crypto rails; sustained expansion has historically accompanied risk-on phases, sustained contraction the opposite.
Where system liquidity sits
The Fed balance sheet (assets, weekly) against the overnight reverse-repo facility. QT shows up as the balance sheet grinding down; RRP draining toward zero has meant cash leaving the parking lot and becoming available to markets.
The price of money
The effective Fed funds rate against the 10-year Treasury yield. Cuts and hikes set the discount rate on every risk asset; the 10-year is the gravity every long-duration trade fights.
What happened after days like this?
Every recorded day is grouped by where this metric sat; each band shows the median BTC move that followed. Distribution, not prediction.
Today sits in the "Very high" band of 8 years of daily records. Days like this led to a median +0.0% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=628), about the same as any other day (+0.4%). No edge either way, and we say so.
| Band | Range | Days | Next 24h | Next 72h | Next 7d | Up next 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very low | $0B … $2B | 636 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.5% | 52% |
| Low | $2B … $100B | 636 | +0.1% | +0.6% | +1.4% | 56% |
| Mid | $100B … $142B | 636 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.8% | 58% |
| High | $142B … $187B | 636 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.6% | 47% |
| Very hightoday | $187B … $321B | 628 | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.0% | 50% |
| All days (base rate) | 3172 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | 52% |
Median BTC move after each band. Records since 2017-11-29 (3179 days). History, not a forecast.
What happened after days like this?
Every recorded day is grouped by where this metric sat; each band shows the median BTC move that followed. Distribution, not prediction.
Today sits in the "Mid" band of 8 years of daily records. Days like this led to a median +0.1% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=680), about the same as any other day (+0.5%). No edge either way, and we say so.
| Band | Range | Days | Next 24h | Next 72h | Next 7d | Up next 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very low | 0.04% … 0.10% | 722 | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.6% | 57% |
| Low | 0.10% … 1.82% | 593 | +0.0% | +0.3% | -0.6% | 48% |
| Midtoday | 1.82% … 3.63% | 680 | +0.0% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 51% |
| High | 3.63% … 4.58% | 685 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | 53% |
| Very high | 4.58% … 5.33% | 596 | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.5% | 56% |
| All days (base rate) | 3276 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.5% | 53% |
Median BTC move after each band. Records since 2017-08-17 (3282 days). History, not a forecast.
Methodology and sources
Stablecoin supply is the total circulating market cap of USD-pegged stablecoins as aggregated by DeFiLlama, recorded daily and backfilled from their dated public history (2017-11 onward).
Fed series come from FRED's public CSV endpoints: DFF (effective Fed funds, daily), DGS10 (10-year constant maturity, business days), WALCL (Fed total assets, weekly) and RRPONTSYD (overnight reverse repo, business days). Values are recorded under their official observation dates; publication lags a day or two by design.
The context tables bucket each series against its own recorded history and show the forward BTC return distribution per bucket, base-rate alongside, minimum 30 days per bucket. Correlation is not causation and we do not pretend otherwise; the tables show what happened, not what will.
FAQ
Why does stablecoin supply matter for BTC?
Stablecoins are the dollars that already live on crypto rails: they settle instantly against BTC around the clock. When the float grows, buying power inside the system grows; when it shrinks, dollars are leaving the arena. It is a liquidity gauge, not a timing signal.
What is the reverse repo and why do traders watch it?
The ON RRP facility is where money-market funds park cash at the Fed overnight. From a $2.6T peak in 2022 it drained to near zero: that cash re-entered markets, cushioning the impact of QT. Near zero, the cushion is gone and balance-sheet changes bite directly.
Where do the numbers come from and can I download them?
FRED public CSVs and DeFiLlama's public API, recorded into our daily metric archive. The full series ship inside the CC0 metric-daily dataset (CSV and JSON) on the data hub, no key needed.
Do these series actually predict BTC?
Mostly no, and our context tables say so honestly: most buckets do not separate from the base rate. What they give you is regime awareness: knowing whether the liquidity tide is rising or falling while you read every other gauge on this site.