Is Liquidity With Crypto or Against It?
Crypto trades inside a dollar-liquidity regime it does not control. This dashboard records the four series that describe that regime: stablecoin supply (the crypto-native dollar float), the Fed balance sheet and the reverse-repo facility (where system liquidity sits), and the price of money itself (Fed funds and the 10-year yield). Every series is archived daily and joined against forward BTC returns in the context tables.
Total stablecoin supply is currently $309B. The Fed funds rate stands at 3.63% with the Fed balance sheet at $6.73T. Full daily history and what followed similar readings is below.
The crypto-native dollar float
Total market cap of USD-pegged stablecoins since 2017. This is the dry powder that lives inside the crypto rails; sustained expansion has historically accompanied risk-on phases, sustained contraction the opposite.
Where system liquidity sits
The Fed balance sheet (assets, weekly) against the overnight reverse-repo facility. QT shows up as the balance sheet grinding down; RRP draining toward zero has meant cash leaving the parking lot and becoming available to markets.
The price of money
The effective Fed funds rate against the 10-year Treasury yield. Cuts and hikes set the discount rate on every risk asset; the 10-year is the gravity every long-duration trade fights.
What happened after days like this?
Every recorded day is grouped by where this metric sat; each band shows the median BTC move that followed. Distribution, not prediction.
Today sits in the "Крайне высокий" band of 8 years of daily records. Days like this led to a median +0.0% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=633), about the same as any other day (+0.4%). No edge either way, and we say so.
| Band | Range | Days | Next 24h | Next 72h | Next 7d | Up next 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Крайне низкий | $0B … $3B | 640 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.5% | 52% |
| Ниже среднего | $3B … $105B | 640 | +0.1% | +0.6% | +1.4% | 56% |
| Средний | $105B … $143B | 640 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +1.0% | 58% |
| Выше среднего | $143B … $194B | 640 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.7% | 46% |
| Крайне высокийtoday | $194B … $321B | 633 | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.0% | 50% |
| All days (base rate) | 3193 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | 52% |
Median BTC move after each band. Records since 2017-11-29 (3200 days). History, not a forecast.
What happened after days like this?
Every recorded day is grouped by where this metric sat; each band shows the median BTC move that followed. Distribution, not prediction.
Today sits in the "Выше среднего" band of 9 years of daily records. Days like this led to a median +0.1% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=707), vs +0.7% on an average day. History, not a forecast.
| Band | Range | Days | Next 24h | Next 72h | Next 7d | Up next 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Крайне низкий | 0.04% … 0.10% | 722 | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.6% | 57% |
| Ниже среднего | 0.10% … 1.58% | 711 | +0.3% | +1.1% | +0.9% | 53% |
| Средний | 1.58% … 3.08% | 699 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.5% | 52% |
| Выше среднегоtoday | 3.08% … 4.33% | 707 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.1% | 51% |
| Крайне высокий | 4.33% … 5.33% | 686 | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.6% | 56% |
| All days (base rate) | 3525 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.7% | 54% |
Median BTC move after each band. Records since 2017-01-01 (3531 days). History, not a forecast.
Methodology and sources
Stablecoin supply is the total circulating market cap of USD-pegged stablecoins as aggregated by DeFiLlama, recorded daily and backfilled from their dated public history (2017-11 onward).
Fed series come from FRED's public CSV endpoints: DFF (effective Fed funds, daily), DGS10 (10-year constant maturity, business days), WALCL (Fed total assets, weekly) and RRPONTSYD (overnight reverse repo, business days). Values are recorded under their official observation dates; publication lags a day or two by design.
The context tables bucket each series against its own recorded history and show the forward BTC return distribution per bucket, base-rate alongside, minimum 30 days per bucket. Correlation is not causation and we do not pretend otherwise; the tables show what happened, not what will.
FAQ
Why does stablecoin supply matter for BTC?
Stablecoins are the dollars that already live on crypto rails: they settle instantly against BTC around the clock. When the float grows, buying power inside the system grows; when it shrinks, dollars are leaving the arena. It is a liquidity gauge, not a timing signal.
What is the reverse repo and why do traders watch it?
The ON RRP facility is where money-market funds park cash at the Fed overnight. From a $2.6T peak in 2022 it drained to near zero: that cash re-entered markets, cushioning the impact of QT. Near zero, the cushion is gone and balance-sheet changes bite directly.
Where do the numbers come from and can I download them?
FRED public CSVs and DeFiLlama's public API, recorded into our daily metric archive. The full series ship inside the CC0 metric-daily dataset (CSV and JSON) on the data hub, no key needed.
Do these series actually predict BTC?
Mostly no, and our context tables say so honestly: most buckets do not separate from the base rate. What they give you is regime awareness: knowing whether the liquidity tide is rising or falling while you read every other gauge on this site.