Factor Board
Each metric ByKaranteli records daily is placed in its own historical band (quantiles of its full history). For the band today sits in, the table shows the median BTC move over the next 7 days and how that compares with the median of all days. A large gap is an observation about the past, not a forecast; bands with fewer than 30 matured days show nothing.
As of
All metrics, largest gap first
Edge is the 7-day median BTC move after days in today's band minus the median after all days, in percentage points. Up 7d is the share of those days that closed higher a week later.
| Metric | Today | Band | Days | Next 7d | Base | Edge | Up 7d | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gate insurance fund, USDT and BTC ($M) | $261M | Very high 5/5 | 31 | -1.2% | +0.9% | -2.1 pp | 39% | 2026-03 | History · Open |
| DeFi narrative index | 66.3 | High 4/5 | 82 | -1.7% | -0.3% | -1.4 pp | 37% | 2025-07 | History |
| AI narrative index | 27.3 | High 4/5 | 82 | -1.6% | -0.3% | -1.4 pp | 40% | 2025-07 | History |
| L1 narrative index | 44.9 | Mid 3/5 | 83 | -1.6% | -0.3% | -1.3 pp | 34% | 2025-07 | History |
| RWA narrative index | 37.7 | High 4/5 | 82 | -1.6% | -0.3% | -1.3 pp | 41% | 2025-07 | History |
| L2 narrative index | 12.4 | Mid 3/5 | 83 | -1.5% | -0.3% | -1.2 pp | 40% | 2025-07 | History |
| Spot SOL ETF net flow | -$9.2M | Very low 1/5 | 74 | +0.8% | -0.4% | +1.1 pp | 57% | 2025-10 | History · Open |
| DePIN narrative index | 21.5 | Mid 3/5 | 83 | -1.3% | -0.3% | -1.1 pp | 37% | 2025-07 | History |
| Fed balance sheet | $6743B | High 4/5 | 153 | +1.7% | +0.7% | +1.0 pp | 60% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| Meme narrative index | 20.4 | Low 2/5 | 87 | +0.7% | -0.3% | +0.9 pp | 54% | 2025-07 | History |
| BTC flow toxicity (VPIN) | 0.144 | High 3/3 | 42 | -0.6% | +0.3% | -0.8 pp | 43% | 2026-05 | History · Open |
| BTC 111-day moving average | $70845 | Very high 5/5 | 1049 | +0.0% | +0.8% | -0.8 pp | 50% | 2012-04 | History |
| BTC funding, daily | -0.002% | Very low 1/5 | 516 | +1.2% | +0.4% | +0.8 pp | 58% | 2019-09 | History · Open |
| Spot ETF net flow | -$90M | Mid 2/3 | 113 | -0.9% | -0.1% | -0.8 pp | 43% | 2025-05 | History · Open |
| Fed funds effective rate | 3.88% | High 4/5 | 1063 | +0.1% | +0.8% | -0.7 pp | 51% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| Reverse repo (RRP) | $0B | Very low 1/5 | 671 | +1.3% | +0.6% | +0.7 pp | 57% | 2012-03 | History · Open |
| BTC 2 x 350-day moving average | $155612 | Very high 5/5 | 1001 | +0.1% | +0.7% | -0.6 pp | 51% | 2012-12 | History |
| BTC average fee | 1.0 sat/vB | Very low 1/5 | 43 | +0.6% | +1.2% | -0.6 pp | 56% | 2026-06 | History · Open |
| Coinbase premium | -0.012% | Low 2/5 | 662 | +0.0% | +0.5% | -0.5 pp | 50% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| BTC close / 200-week MA | 1.29 | Low 2/5 | 792 | +1.1% | +0.7% | +0.4 pp | 59% | 2015-10 | History |
| PsiCharge score | 27 | Very low 1/5 | 31 | +0.5% | +0.1% | +0.4 pp | 52% | 2026-04 | History · Open |
| BTC hashrate | 1029 EH/s | Very high 5/5 | 627 | +0.1% | +0.5% | -0.4 pp | 52% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| BTC difficulty | 132.7T | Very high 5/5 | 627 | +0.1% | +0.5% | -0.4 pp | 52% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| UK overnight rate (SONIA) | 3.73% | High 3/3 | 1229 | +0.3% | +0.8% | -0.4 pp | 52% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| Golden ratio multiple (close / 350dma) | 1.10 | Low 2/5 | 1002 | +0.3% | +0.7% | -0.4 pp | 52% | 2012-12 | History |
| Kraken premium | -0.009% | Mid 3/5 | 150 | -0.0% | +0.4% | -0.4 pp | 49% | 2024-08 | History · Open |
| Share of past days below today's close | 92.5% | Mid 3/5 | 1072 | +0.4% | +0.8% | -0.4 pp | 51% | 2012-01 | History |
| BTC 200-week moving average | $66192 | Very high 5/5 | 791 | +0.4% | +0.7% | -0.3 pp | 53% | 2015-10 | History |
| Quantum narrative index | 142.1 | Very high 5/5 | 82 | -0.6% | -0.3% | -0.3 pp | 43% | 2025-07 | History |
| Stablecoin supply | $313B | Very high 5/5 | 639 | +0.1% | +0.4% | -0.3 pp | 51% | 2017-11 | History · Open |
| Fear & Greed | 73 | Very high 5/5 | 605 | +0.8% | +0.5% | +0.3 pp | 54% | 2018-02 | History · Open |
| Puell Multiple (daily USD revenue / 365d avg) | 1.17 | Mid 3/5 | 1000 | +1.0% | +0.7% | +0.3 pp | 57% | 2012-12 | History |
| Stock-to-flow ratio (nominal schedule) | 122.3 | Very high 5/5 | 1071 | +0.5% | +0.8% | -0.3 pp | 54% | 2012-01 | History |
| ECB deposit facility rate | 2.50% | High 3/3 | 1669 | +0.6% | +0.8% | -0.2 pp | 55% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| US 2-year yield | 4.84% | Very high 5/5 | 725 | +0.5% | +0.7% | -0.2 pp | 54% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| US 10-year yield | 5.31% | Very high 5/5 | 753 | +0.5% | +0.7% | -0.2 pp | 55% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| Mayer Multiple (close / 200dma) | 1.19 | Mid 3/5 | 1034 | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.2 pp | 58% | 2012-07 | History |
| 10-year minus 2-year spread | +0.48 pp | Low 2/5 | 740 | +0.6% | +0.7% | -0.2 pp | 53% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| Deribit DVOL (BTC) | 36.0 | Very low 1/5 | 398 | +0.0% | +0.2% | -0.1 pp | 50% | 2021-03 | History · Open |
| US 30-year yield | 5.66% | Very high 5/5 | 733 | +0.7% | +0.7% | -0.1 pp | 56% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| US 3-month bill yield | 4.22% | Very high 5/5 | 733 | +0.7% | +0.7% | -0.0 pp | 57% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| BTC 2-year moving average | $88876 | Very high 5/5 | 925 | +0.5% | +0.5% | -0.0 pp | 54% | 2013-12 | History |
| BTC 5 x 2-year moving average | $444382 | Very high 5/5 | 925 | +0.5% | +0.5% | -0.0 pp | 54% | 2013-12 | History |
| Fed broad dollar index | 121.38 | Very high 5/5 | 732 | +0.8% | +0.8% | +0.0 pp | 56% | 2012-01 | History · Open |
| Pi Cycle ratio (111dma / 2 x 350dma) | 0.455 | Low 2/5 | 1002 | +0.7% | +0.7% | +0.0 pp | 54% | 2012-12 | History |
| BTC lead-lag, Coinbase vs Binance | +0.000 | Mid 2/3 | 18thin | - | +1.4% | - | - | 2026-08 | History · Open |
| ETH lead-lag, Coinbase vs Binance | +0.014 | High 3/3 | 15thin | - | +1.4% | - | - | 2026-08 | History · Open |
| BTC ATM implied vol, 30d | 34.0% | Mid 2/3 | 17thin | - | +1.3% | - | - | 2026-08 | History · Open |
| ETH ATM implied vol, 30d | 45.9% | Low 1/3 | 17thin | - | +1.4% | - | - | 2026-08 | History · Open |
| BTC 25-delta skew, 30d | +0.43 pp | Mid 2/3 | 17thin | - | +1.3% | - | - | 2026-08 | History · Open |
| ETH 25-delta skew, 30d | -0.31 pp | Mid 2/3 | 14thin | - | +1.4% | - | - | 2026-08 | History · Open |
| BTC implied move, 30d | 9.74% | Mid 2/3 | 17thin | - | +1.3% | - | - | 2026-08 | History |
| ETH implied move, 30d | 13.17% | Low 1/3 | 17thin | - | +1.4% | - | - | 2026-08 | History |
| BTC max pain, front expiry | $84,500 | High 3/3 | 5thin | - | +1.3% | - | - | 2026-08 | History |
| ETH max pain, front expiry | $2,710 | High 3/3 | 13thin | - | +1.4% | - | - | 2026-08 | History |
| BTC $1M slippage | 0.4 bps | Low 2/5 | 10thin | - | +1.3% | - | - | 2026-08 | History · Open |
| Miner revenue per day (BTC, own node) | 486.9 BTC | Very high 5/5 | 18thin | - | +1.0% | - | - | 2026-07 | History |
| Altseason Index | 74 | Very high 5/5 | 8thin | - | +1.3% | - | - | 2026-07 | History · Open |
Bands are quantiles of the metric's own history (3 bands for short histories, 5 for deep ones). Today's value is part of the band definition but not of the outcome statistics, which use only days with a matured 7-day return.
Methodology and honest limits
Data: the metric_daily table, one value per metric per UTC day, joined with the BTC close 1, 3 and 7 calendar days later. Bands are quantile breaks over the full recorded history; the statistics per band are medians and up-shares, never means, so single outliers do not drive the read.
The n >= 30 gate is the same one every instrument page uses: below it the band shows nothing rather than a number that would not survive a second look. Many metrics have short histories (recording started in 2026), so their bands are 3-way and some remain thin for months.
Ordering by absolute edge is a display choice, not a ranking of predictive value. With dozens of metrics and 3-5 bands each, a few large gaps are expected by chance alone; the board exists to make that visible, not to hide it.
FAQ
Why BTC as the outcome for every metric?
It is the one outcome every metric can be compared on, and the asset most of these metrics describe. Per-asset outcomes would shrink n and invite cherry-picking.
Why do some metrics show no edge at all?
Because the data says so. A metric whose bands all lead to roughly the base rate is reported exactly like that: no edge either way.
Where is the full per-band table?
On each metric's own page (for example /premium, /etf, /options, /macro, /network) and in the research note on band-conditioned returns.