Factor Board
Each metric ByKaranteli records daily is placed in its own historical band (quantiles of its full history). For the band today sits in, the table shows the median BTC move over the next 7 days and how that compares with the median of all days. A large gap is an observation about the past, not a forecast; bands with fewer than 30 matured days show nothing.
All metrics, largest gap first
Edge is the 7-day median BTC move after days in today's band minus the median after all days, in percentage points. Up 7d is the share of those days that closed higher a week later.
| Metric | Today | Band | Days | Next 7d | Base | Edge | Up 7d | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DePIN narrative index | 14.5 | Very low 1/5 | 78 | +2.4% | -0.4% | +2.8 pp | 73% | 2025-07 | History |
| L2 narrative index | 8.4 | Very low 1/5 | 76 | +1.1% | -0.4% | +1.5 pp | 61% | 2025-07 | History |
| BTC flow toxicity (VPIN) | 0.127 | Low 1/3 | 35 | +1.1% | -0.4% | +1.4 pp | 63% | 2026-05 | History · Open |
| L1 narrative index | 34.0 | Very low 1/5 | 78 | +1.0% | -0.4% | +1.4 pp | 58% | 2025-07 | History |
| AI narrative index | 17.1 | Low 2/5 | 76 | +1.0% | -0.4% | +1.4 pp | 58% | 2025-07 | History |
| Meme narrative index | 17.8 | Very low 1/5 | 80 | +0.9% | -0.4% | +1.3 pp | 56% | 2025-07 | History |
| RWA narrative index | 28.2 | Mid 3/5 | 76 | -1.7% | -0.4% | -1.2 pp | 29% | 2025-07 | History |
| Fed balance sheet | $6731B | Mid 3/5 | 93 | +1.6% | +0.4% | +1.2 pp | 58% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| Reverse repo (RRP) | $1B | Very low 1/5 | 468 | +1.6% | +0.5% | +1.1 pp | 59% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| BTC funding, daily | +0.022% | Mid 3/5 | 1077 | -0.2% | +0.4% | -0.6 pp | 49% | 2019-09 | History · Open |
| Spot ETF net flow | +$217M | High 3/3 | 104 | +0.2% | -0.3% | +0.5 pp | 51% | 2025-05 | History · Open |
| Coinbase premium | -0.052% | Low 2/5 | 657 | +0.0% | +0.5% | -0.5 pp | 50% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| Quantum narrative index | 75.2 | Mid 3/5 | 79 | +0.0% | -0.4% | +0.4 pp | 51% | 2025-07 | History |
| BTC hashrate | 916 EH/s | Very high 5/5 | 618 | +0.1% | +0.5% | -0.4 pp | 51% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| BTC difficulty | 125.8T | Very high 5/5 | 618 | +0.1% | +0.5% | -0.4 pp | 51% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| Fed funds effective rate | 3.63% | Mid 3/5 | 692 | +0.1% | +0.5% | -0.4 pp | 51% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| Stablecoin supply | $309B | Very high 5/5 | 632 | +0.0% | +0.4% | -0.4 pp | 50% | 2017-11 | History · Open |
| Kraken premium | -0.053% | Low 2/5 | 147 | +0.1% | +0.3% | -0.2 pp | 51% | 2024-08 | History · Open |
| Deribit DVOL (BTC) | 37.6 | Very low 1/5 | 392 | -0.0% | +0.2% | -0.2 pp | 49% | 2021-03 | History · Open |
| Fear & Greed | 69 | High 4/5 | 633 | +0.6% | +0.4% | +0.2 pp | 55% | 2018-02 | History · Open |
| DeFi narrative index | 44.3 | Mid 3/5 | 76 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.1 pp | 41% | 2025-07 | History |
| US 10-year yield | 4.75% | Very high 5/5 | 460 | +0.6% | +0.5% | +0.1 pp | 56% | 2017-08 | History · Open |
| PsiCharge score | 23 | Very low 1/5 | 19thin | - | -0.4% | - | - | 2026-04 | History · Open |
| BTC average fee | 1.0 sat/vB | Very low 1/5 | 26thin | - | +1.0% | - | - | 2026-06 | History · Open |
Bands are quantiles of the metric's own history (3 bands for short histories, 5 for deep ones). Today's value is part of the band definition but not of the outcome statistics, which use only days with a matured 7-day return.
Methodology and honest limits
Data: the metric_daily table (CC0), one value per metric per UTC day, joined with the BTC close 1, 3 and 7 calendar days later. Bands are quantile breaks over the full recorded history; the statistics per band are medians and up-shares, never means, so single outliers do not drive the read.
The n >= 30 gate is the same one every instrument page uses: below it the band shows nothing rather than a number that would not survive a second look. Many metrics have short histories (recording started in 2026), so their bands are 3-way and some remain thin for months.
Ordering by absolute edge is a display choice, not a ranking of predictive value. With dozens of metrics and 3-5 bands each, a few large gaps are expected by chance alone; the board exists to make that visible, not to hide it.
FAQ
Why BTC as the outcome for every metric?
It is the one outcome every metric can be compared on, and the asset most of these metrics describe. Per-asset outcomes would shrink n and invite cherry-picking.
Why do some metrics show no edge at all?
Because the data says so. A metric whose bands all lead to roughly the base rate is reported exactly like that: no edge either way.
Where is the full per-band table?
On each metric's own page (for example /premium, /etf, /options, /macro, /network) and in the research note on band-conditioned returns.