Crypto market brief · 2026-09-03
BTC +0.58% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (21). US traders have bid below the global price for 4 straight days. Fear & Greed 65 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $77488 · +0.58% in 24h
- BTC dominance 59.10% · total market cap $2.6T
- Fear & Greed: 65 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 69 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $310.2B · +$526.9M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 21/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (3198 readings), BTC averaged -0.17% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.04%: US bids below global price, day 4 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.12, 37th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: ADAUSDT open interest +9.0% with price +5.5% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 5 adding leverage, 0 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 22 symbols long crowded, 8 in short ramp
Whales, positioning and stock perps
What the largest Hyperliquid accounts hold, how Binance accounts are positioned, the stock and commodity perps, and the Korea and Turkey premium.
- Hyperliquid whales (top 300 accounts by equity): $1.3B long vs $1.9B short, 40% long
- BTC whale book: 45% long on $877.5M of open positions
- BTC on Binance: long/short accounts 1.22, top-trader positions 1.98, taker buy/sell 0.95 (1h)
- Stock and commodity perps: 187 contracts, $4.0B open interest; largest XAUUSDT ($491.4M), most liquidated XAUUSDT ($5.5M in 24h)
- Kimchi premium (Upbit BTC) +0.064%, Turkey premium (BtcTurk BTC) +0.061%
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 37.2
- 24h taker premium: $19.0M into calls vs $4.2M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-30OCT26-68000-C · $4.2M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.55 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $114.2M longs vs $93.3M shorts across 85,962 events
- Largest single liquidation: AKEUSDT $4.7M
- 1 cascade event detected in 24h, largest $46.7M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $236.5M on 2026-09-01 · day 1 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$11.0M on 2026-09-01 · day 12 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 14 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.7x a normal half hour (17 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-25: hedge funds net -8,089 BTC futures contracts (-650 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 2 signals closed in 24h (0 wins / 1 losses) · aggregate net -2.58%
- Rolling 30d: 96 trades · 42.7% win rate · net profit factor 0.98
더 자세히 보기
이 브리프는 롤업입니다 · 위의 각 수치는 클릭하여 들어갈 수 있는 실시간 페이지에서 가져옵니다. 유동성 상태: PsiCharge. US 프리미엄: Coinbase Premium. 오더플로우: VPIN 레이더. 옵션: GEX + DVOL.
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