Crypto market brief · 2026-10-28

US buyers stay below global price, day 53

Bitcoin climbed 2.02% to $81,446 over 24 hours, and US buyers still didn't close the gap. The Coinbase premium, the difference between the US price and the global one, read -0.14%. That makes 53 days in a row of Americans bidding below everyone else.

The rest of the board reads mild. Fear & Greed sits at 51, neutral, and Bitcoin holds 59.45% of a $2.7T crypto market.

The biggest leverage build came on $LINK. Open interest, the value of open futures bets, rose 5.8% as price gained 4.0%, so new longs were being added. Of 10 tracked majors, 2 added leverage and none were squeezed out.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-0901-daily-brief, data as of 2026-10-28 09:01 UTC

US buyers bid under global price, day 53

Day 53 of the US discount on Bitcoin came on Oct 27. Coinbase priced $BTC -0.136% below the global exchanges, meaning American buyers bid under what traders elsewhere were paying, every single day of that run.

The size of the gap matched its seven day average of -0.134% almost exactly. The discount is small, but the side it sits on has not flipped in 53 days.

Quarterly futures traded above spot at a rate worth +5.40% a year, the extra that buyers of dated contracts paid over the spot price.

Since 2017, days in this very low band saw a median -0.1% BTC move over the next 7d (n=665, base +0.5%, 9y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-0720-premium-daily, data as of 2026-10-28 07:20 UTC

Miners dialed back hashrate over the week

Bitcoin's miners ran less machinery in the week to Oct 27, but the month still shows them ahead. Hashrate, the total computing power securing the chain, came in at 1092 EH/s by our node's count, with a 7 day change of -4.6% against +5.3% over 30 days.

Difficulty, the bar every new block has to clear, stood at 140.58T. Fees ran at 0.5 sat/vB, and miners took in 508.8 BTC in revenue on the day.

Since 2017, days in this very high band saw a median +0.1% BTC move over the next 7d (n=635, base +0.5%, 8y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-0540-network-daily, data as of 2026-10-27 00:20 UTC

Bitcoin shorts get forced out in 30 minutes

Traders betting on a lower Bitcoin just got squeezed. Over the last 30 minutes, exchanges force closed $10.7M of $BTC short positions, which are bets on a falling price. Each one was shut automatically once the margin behind it could no longer cover the move against it.

The buyers' side hardly felt it. Liquidations on bets for a higher Bitcoin came to just $17.2K over the same window.

These totals are counted from the raw liquidation streams of the major venues.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-0837-event-liq-burst, data as of 2026-10-28 08:37 UTC

Altcoins outrun Bitcoin as index hits 86

Bitcoin's 24.5% gain over the past 90 days trails 42 of the 49 altcoins we sample. That puts the Altcoin Season Index at 86 on Oct 28, well past the 75 line where altseason begins and 6 points higher than a week earlier.

The spread inside the group is wide. BTW leads with a 21x return over those 90 days, and APR sits at the far end at -75.6%.

Some large names landed among the bottom five and behind $BTC, with ONDO at +0.4% and DOGE at +12.4%. Holders of those coins are lagging Bitcoin itself, not only the rest of the alt market.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-1800-altseason-daily, data as of 2026-10-28 15:12 UTC

Ether's crowd leans hardest of 30 coins

Ether's crowd on Binance is the most lopsided of the 30 coins we track. As of 16:53 UTC on Oct 28, 3.18 $ETH accounts were long for every one short.

Bitcoin leans the same way, though less. Binance's global ratio reads 1.99, its top traders read 2.12 by account and 1.86 by position size. OKX shows 2.05, and 65% of Bybit accounts sit on the buy side.

Orders on $BTC pointed the other way. Over 24 hours, market sell orders outweighed market buys by 2,252 BTC, and in the latest hour sellers kept the edge at 0.92 buys for every sell.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-1701-positioning-daily, data as of 2026-10-28 16:53 UTC

Turkish traders buy crypto at a discount

Crypto in Turkey trades below the global price. Our Turkey premium index reads -27.9 bps, or -0.28%, a discount regime that scores 39 / 100 on our gauge.

The index splits the gap into two parts. The dollar leg compares what stablecoin dollars cost in lira with the lira's dollar rate, and it accounts for -26.5 bps. The crypto leg compares coins priced in lira with the same coins priced in dollars, and it adds only -1.4 bps.

So the discount sits in how Turkish traders price dollars, not in how they price Bitcoin or other coins. A premium gap like this measures local pricing, not the direction of the market.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-0740-data-spotlight, data as of 2026-10-28 07:40 UTC

Binance pauses LINK withdrawals on Ethereum

Binance has switched off LINK withdrawals on the ETH network. Our daily read of the exchange's own currency list picked up the change.

Anyone planning to send $LINK from Binance to an Ethereum wallet can't use that route through the exchange for now. Deposits, and withdrawals over other networks, may still be open.

A closed withdrawal route is the earliest public signal a venue gives when something needs attention, though most pauses of this kind come down to routine maintenance.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-10-28#2026-10-28-0637-event-venue-event, data as of 2026-10-28 06:37 UTC

Bybit shuts AVAX withdrawals on CAVAX

Bybit has closed AVAX withdrawals on the CAVAX network. The change appeared in the exchange's own currency list during our daily read.

Anyone holding $AVAX on Bybit who planned to move it out over CAVAX can't use that route through the exchange at the moment. Deposits, and withdrawals on other networks, may still be working.

A closed withdrawal route is the earliest public signal a venue gives when something is off, but most of these pauses turn out to be routine maintenance.

Silver buyers and gold sellers both got hit

Silver and gold punished opposite crowds on Binance's TradFi perpetuals on Oct 27. Leveraged silver buyers lost $1.91M of XAG's $1.97M, and the day's largest single forced closure, $391K, was a silver position. On gold it was the sellers, with $943K of XAU's $1.20M.

The top name was SOXL, a leveraged semiconductor fund, at $3.45M, with $2.25M of it from short bets. SanDisk's SNDK followed at $2.42M, mostly shorts at $1.70M.

Across the board $14.87M was forced out, 45% longs / 55% shorts, over 159 contracts and 4,259 events, down 14% from $17.34M on Oct 26.

Binance closes USDC withdrawals on AVAXC

A withdrawal route for USDC on Binance is shut. The exchange switched off USDC withdrawals over the AVAXC network, and our daily read of Binance's own currency list caught the change.

If you keep $USDC on Binance and planned to send it to an Avalanche wallet over AVAXC, that route is unavailable through the exchange for now. Deposits, and withdrawals on other networks, may still work.

A closed withdrawal route is the earliest public signal a venue gives when something is off, though most of these pauses are routine maintenance.

Binance charges the most to borrow dollars

Binance charged 5.41% a year to lend dollars on margin in the Oct 28 read at 05:25 UTC, the highest of the three venues we track. The same $USDT loan cost 3.5% on OKX, and Bybit's 3.92% was the median.

The widest gap among the 15 assets on our board was on Bybit. Leveraged buyers of $BTC perpetuals there paid 10.95% a year in funding, the fee longs pay shorts to keep their bets open. A margin loan of Bitcoin itself on the same venue cost 0.43%.

That left a recorded spread of 10.52% a year between what longs paid and what borrowing the coin cost.

Binance reopens LINK withdrawals on ETH

Binance has reopened LINK withdrawals on the ETH network after about 1 hour. The change showed up in the exchange's own currency list during our daily read.

If you hold $LINK on Binance and were waiting to send it to an Ethereum wallet, that route through the exchange is available again.

This record covers the ETH route on Binance. It doesn't tell us how other networks or other venues were affected during the pause.

Big options trades reached into 2027

The three largest $BTC options trades of the past 48 hours all reached into 2027, and each was negotiated as a block. One taker sold a Mar 26, 2027 $80,000 call for $847.1K in premium. Another bought a $78,000 put on the same date for $600.0K.

The third went further out, buying a Jun 25, 2027 $95,000 call for $570.3K.

Over the last 24 hours on the venues we read, takers bought $3.0M of calls and $2.3M of puts across 12,999 recorded trades. Blocks made up 42% of all premium dollars traded, bought and sold together.

Exchange insurance funds add $51.5M in a day

The 10 exchange insurance funds we track grew by +$51.5M in the 24 hours to Oct 28, a +0.68% gain that leaves them holding $7.66B. Over seven days the total is still down -0.51%. An insurance fund is the cash an exchange keeps to cover liquidations that close below a trader's bankruptcy price.

OKX led the day at +1.23%, and its $3.00B is the largest fund on the list. Bybit followed at +1.14%. Binance was the only fund that shrank, by -0.05%, to $2.45B.

Combined, the funds equal 16.20% of the perpetual open interest we track on these venues. These are balances the exchanges report, not audits.

Deribit settles 12 Bitcoin futures on Oct 29

Deribit settles 12 dated $BTC futures and 12 dated $ETH futures on Thursday, Oct 29. These contracts carry a fixed expiry date, and every open position on them closes at that day's settlement price.

The same day, Deribit also closes one contract each on AVAX, HYPE and SOL, and Bullish settles a single Bitcoin future. Across 15 venues, 136 dated futures and 7,249 option contracts reach expiry in the next 7 days.

One settlement was recorded in the 24 hours to 09:15 UTC on Oct 28. Deribit's USDC margined $AVAX future closed at $8.979 at 08:00 UTC.

Resting bids shrank 36.3% as Bitcoin rose

$BTC climbed 2.1% in the 24 hours to 09:35 UTC on Oct 28, from $79.7K to $81.3K, and the buy side of the spot book got thinner on the way up. Resting bids within 2% of mid were 36.3% smaller than a day earlier, and asks grew 14%.

Across 21 spot venues, that leaves $134.9M of bids against $156.5M of asks, a -7.4% imbalance with sellers on the heavier side.

The two largest walls sit almost on top of the price: $39.7M of bids at $81.3K, 0.05% below mid, and $40.6M of asks at $81.4K, 0.05% above. Resting orders can be pulled at any moment, so this is a snapshot of the book, not a map of what comes next.

Big buyers and sellers fought to a draw

Neither side of the big money won the 24 hours to 10:00 UTC on Oct 28. Whale sized buy orders totalled $6.67B and sells $6.59B, which leaves buyers with 50.3% of large order flow. That sits well inside the 45% to 55% range we treat as two sided.

The flow came across 6,938 large orders. $BTC drew the most of it with 3,688 orders, $ETH followed with 2,880, and $SOL was a distant third with 152.

The single largest order of the window was $23.5M, placed on Bitcoin.

Short sellers hold more modeled liquidation risk

Short sellers carried more of Bitcoin's estimated liquidation exposure near the price at 11:00 UTC on Oct 28, with $BTC at $81,458. Within 3% of that price, more modeled exposure sat above it than below.

The first modeled short level is $81,858, with the largest short cluster just past it at $81,953. Those are the prices where bets against Bitcoin would be forced to buy back.

On the long side, the nearest estimated level is $80,623. The largest modeled cluster of leveraged buyers sits much further down, at $77,963.

Buyers pile into BNB futures faster than price

Binance Coin drew the biggest wave of new futures bets among the majors in the 24 hours to Oct 28, 11:35 UTC. Open interest, the value of futures positions still open, grew 6.08% while the price gained 2.82%. Buyers drove the build, and funding of 0.01% means they pay sellers only a small fee to stay in.

Cardano is the only other major where buyers led the build. Its open interest grew 5% on a 1.57% price gain, with funding at 0.0028%.

Dogecoin and Chainlink added bets at a similar pace, 5.4% and 5.12%, but without a clear lead from either side.

HTX alone adds a new perpetual contract

HTX was the only venue to add a perpetual contract in the 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on Oct 28. Our collectors watch six futures exchanges, and the other five listed nothing new in that window.

The single addition is $BA, first seen on HTX at 04:52 UTC. It trades on that one exchange alone, so anyone trading it on leverage has a single order book to deal with and no second venue to compare prices against.

Options traders price an ordinary month

Bitcoin options traders are paying for a fairly ordinary amount of movement. Deribit's volatility index, DVOL, reads 37.7. It measures how large a swing option buyers price in for $BTC over the next 30 days.

That reading ranks at the 60th percentile of the past 90 days, near the middle of a 90 day range that runs from 33.6 to 43.5.

The cost of buying protection is a touch above its recent midpoint and below the 43.5 top of that window. DVOL prices the size of a move, not its direction.

Bitcoin leaves yesterday's range, Ether stays in

Bitcoin has moved out of the range where its perpetual traders spent most of yesterday's session, and Ether has not. $BTC trades at $80,788.50 ahead of the US open, above a zone that ran from $79,555.19 to $80,556.64.

That zone holds 70% of the session's trading time. Bitcoin's most traded price was $79,815.57, and the session closed at $80,868.50, +1.32% over it.

$ETH sits inside its own zone at $2,341.64. That range ran from $2,303.71 to $2,344.37, with the most traded price at $2,313.59 and a close at $2,349.29.

Leveraged Ether buyers sit closest to the edge

Leveraged buyers carry the heavier side of Ether's estimated liquidation map on Oct 28. At 13:00 UTC, with $ETH at $2,340, more modeled exposure within 3% of price sits below it, on long positions.

The closest modeled long level is $2,332, only a few dollars under the price. The larger long cluster is estimated at $2,267. Above, the nearest modeled short level is $2,376 and the larger one $2,433, where sellers would be forced to buy back.

Under $2,332, the first modeled long liquidations begin.

Bitcoin ETFs draw cash as Ether funds lose it

US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew a net $176.0M on Oct 27, and IBIT alone accounted for $151.5M of it. Ether ETFs went the opposite way the same day, with a net -$60.2M.

The Bitcoin side lines up with its five day count, which stands at a net $41.3M for the period ending Oct 27. Day and week point the same direction, though the weekly figure is far smaller than the single day.

Bitcoin ETF net assets were $103.94B as of Oct 27, with cumulative net inflows of $57.47B since launch.

Since 2025, days in this mid band saw a median -1.0% BTC move over the next 7d (n=119, base -0.3%, 1y of records). History, not a forecast.

Two walls box in Bitcoin near $80.5K

Two walls of resting orders boxed in Bitcoin's spot price on Oct 28, each within one 0.1% step of $80,517. Sellers had $37.3M parked at $80,557 and buyers had $35.5M at $80,476, across 21 spot venues at 13:57 UTC.

Widen the view to 2% either side and buyers carry more size. Bids came to $167.6M against $149.0M of asks, a 5.9% tilt to the bid side.

Ether's books looked much the same near $2,330. Walls of $17.4M at $2,333 and $16.8M at $2,326 framed the price, and bids led asks $95.9M to $83.4M, a 7.0% tilt. This is resting size that can be pulled before anything trades.

Chainlink's book charges the most for size

Chainlink had the thinnest order book of the eight we track on Oct 28. Walking the live $LINK book at 14:00 UTC, a $1.0M market order would have given up an estimated 19.6 bps between the quoted price and its average fill.

The same modeled order in $BTC came to an estimated 0.5 bps. Ether followed at 1.1 bps, Solana at 2.8 bps and XRP at 4.8 bps.

At the thin end, $ADA came next at 18.7 bps, then Dogecoin at 10 bps and BNB at 6.7 bps. On those books, a large forced close has to eat through more of the resting orders before it fills.

Turkish exchanges all price Bitcoin under world

No Turkish venue paid up for Bitcoin on Oct 28. OKX TR was the dearest at -16.3 bps against the global price, and BtcTurk the cheapest at -21.5 bps.

The Turkey Premium Index came to -0.19% (-19.0 bps), a score of 42 / 100 in the neutral regime. The 24 hour average was -27.7 bps and the 7 day average -18.9 bps.

The coin itself barely moved the needle at -0.5 bps. The dollar leg did the rest, with USDT/TRY trading -18.5 bps against the official USD/TRY rate, so lira buyers paid less for their dollars before paying for any $BTC. It is a price gap, not a trade anyone can lock in.

Buyers deepen Ether's book as price dips

Ether's price slipped 0.7% in the 24 hours to 15:39 UTC on Oct 28, and buyers on its spot books added depth instead of pulling it. Bids resting within 2% of the price grew 6.9% over that day, and offers in the same range shrank 8.3%.

Across 21 spot venues that leaves $98.73M in bids against $88.18M in asks, a 5.6% tilt toward the buy side.

The two biggest walls hug the $2,330.62 mid. One holds $18.76M of bids at $2,329.46, 0.05% below, and the other holds $20.04M of offers at $2,334.12, 0.15% above. Resting orders can be pulled at any moment, so this is a snapshot of the book, not a map of where price goes.

SOPH bounces but stays most oversold

$SOPH gained 3.6% over 24 hours on Oct 28 and still has the most lopsided daily chart among Binance crypto perpetuals, with an RSI of 20.1. RSI measures how one sided the last 14 days of gains and losses have been; 30 or under counts as oversold, 70 or over as overbought.

Across 399 crypto perps, 23 sit oversold against 12 overbought, and the average daily reading is 45.5. $CT follows at 21.2 after a -2.3% day, then $FOGO at 24.7, also -2.3%.

The opposite end belongs to EVAA, with a daily RSI of 85.1 after a +117.8% day.

Crowd mood gains 3 points, still neutral

A little more nerve came back into crypto over the 24 hours to 19:00 UTC on Oct 28. The Fear and Greed index, a score of how bold or nervous traders feel, gained 3 points to 51. That still counts as neutral, so the crowd isn't leaning hard either way.

The dollars parked on crypto rails hardly moved. Total stablecoin supply stands at $302.40B, a -0.06% change on the day.

Bitcoin accounts for 59.48% of the whole crypto market's value, which leaves most of the market's weight on a single coin.

Crypto's money sits mostly with Bitcoin

Out of $2.74T in total crypto market value, 59.48% sat in $BTC at 19:42 UTC on Oct 28. Ether, the next largest coin, held 10.51%.

Most of the money in crypto still sits in one coin. Ether and every altcoin together hold a smaller share than Bitcoin does alone.

This is a snapshot of where the money sits on Oct 28. It doesn't show which way it is moving over the day, and one day's share wouldn't tell that story anyway.