What Does Bitcoin Actually Do When the Fed Speaks?
Everyone says Fed days are volatile. We measure it: for every FOMC statement we take Bitcoin's price the minute before the release and track exactly what happened 5, 30 and 60 minutes later, from our own minute-resolution record. No folklore, just the tape. More event types (CPI, jobs report) join as their calendars are wired in.
Across the last 24 FOMC statements, Bitcoin's average 30-minute move was 0.49%, about 2.9x a normal half hour at the same time of day. Next statement: 2026-09-16 in 41 days.
How hard does each statement hit?
Bitcoin's 30-minute move after each FOMC statement, in percent. Green closed up, red closed down. The size of the bars, not their direction, is the tradable fact: direction has been close to a coin flip.
Reactions are measured from our own minute record, which starts 2023-08-02; earlier meetings appear as the record deepens.
Every measured statement
| Meeting | 5 min | 30 min | 1 hour | 30m range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | +0.16% | -0.13% | +0.33% | 1.05% |
| 2026-06-17 | -1.84% | -1.06% | -0.74% | 1.38% |
| 2026-04-29 | -0.40% | -1.54% | -0.85% | 1.66% |
| 2026-03-18 | +0.40% | +0.35% | -0.54% | 0.65% |
| 2026-01-28 | -0.29% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.74% |
| 2025-12-10 | -0.33% | +0.18% | +0.36% | 1.64% |
| 2025-10-29 | -0.43% | -0.40% | -0.69% | 0.83% |
| 2025-09-17 | +0.62% | +0.31% | -0.27% | 1.22% |
| 2025-08-22 | +0.07% | -0.05% | -0.23% | 0.54% |
| 2025-07-30 | -0.18% | -0.10% | -1.14% | 0.50% |
| 2025-06-18 | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.69% | 0.66% |
| 2025-05-07 | +0.19% | +0.02% | +0.19% | 0.83% |
| 2025-03-19 | -0.37% | +0.14% | +1.58% | 1.53% |
| 2025-01-29 | -0.50% | -1.03% | +0.41% | 1.47% |
| 2024-12-18 | -0.86% | -0.95% | -1.89% | 1.23% |
| 2024-11-07 | -0.56% | -0.41% | -0.18% | 0.92% |
| 2024-09-18 | +0.74% | +0.77% | +0.96% | 1.77% |
| 2024-07-31 | -0.12% | -0.61% | -0.20% | 0.85% |
| 2024-06-12 | -1.02% | -0.81% | -1.31% | 1.19% |
| 2024-05-01 | +0.73% | +0.86% | +3.07% | 1.26% |
| 2024-03-20 | +0.96% | +0.25% | +2.10% | 1.50% |
| 2024-01-31 | +0.09% | -0.90% | -0.39% | 1.02% |
| 2023-12-13 | +0.62% | +0.67% | +1.46% | 0.53% |
| 2023-09-20 | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.08% | 0.55% |
Methodology and honest caveats
Event times come from the Federal Reserve's official meeting calendar: statements drop at 14:00 Eastern on the final day of each meeting, converted to UTC with daylight-saving handled. Reactions are computed against the last price before the release from minute-resolution perpetual data.
The baseline is the median absolute 30-minute move at the same clock time on non-event days, so the multiplier compares Fed half hours to ordinary half hours, not to a number we invented.
Honest caveats: this is description, not prediction. Past reaction sizes do not bind future ones, direction has been near random, and the biggest moves often come minutes later during the press conference rather than on the statement itself.
Why does the Fed move Bitcoin at all?
Rate expectations set the price of money and the appetite for risk assets. An FOMC statement that shifts those expectations reprices everything at once, and crypto, trading 24/7 with leverage, reacts within seconds.
Should I trade the statement?
The measured facts argue for caution: spreads widen, books thin out, and the direction of the first move has been close to a coin flip that often reverses during the press conference. What the data supports is sizing down and widening stops around the timestamp, not betting on a direction.
Why only FOMC for now?
Event times must be exact to the minute for the measurement to mean anything, and the Fed publishes a clean official calendar. CPI and the jobs report will join once their schedules are wired in with the same precision.
How far back does this go?
The page notes the start of our minute record; every meeting after that date is measured, and each new meeting is added the hour it happens. The record only grows.