BTC flow toxicity (VPIN): what happened next when it sat where it sits today
This page takes one indicator from our own daily record, splits its history into five equal bands, and shows what BTC did over the next 1, 3 and 7 days from each band, next to the base rate of all days. It is a distribution of what happened, not a forecast: a band with fewer than 30 days is marked thin and should be read as noise.
What followed each band
Median forward BTC return from the days in each band. Up share is the share of those days with a positive 7-day return. The base row is every recorded day.
| Band | Range | Days | Next 1d | Next 3d | Next 7d | Up share 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowtoday | 0.094 … 0.127 | 35 | +0.6% | +0.8% | +1.1% | 63% |
| Mid | 0.127 … 0.139 | 35 | -0.1% | -0.4% | -0.8% | 37% |
| High | 0.139 … 0.179 | 33 | -0.3% | -0.9% | -1.4% | 36% |
| All days (base rate) | 103 | -0.1% | +0.1% | -0.4% | 46% |
Bands with fewer than 30 days are shown for completeness and flagged; do not read an edge into them.
Reading today
Today sits in the "low" band of the recorded history so far. Days like this led to a median +1.1% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=35), vs -0.4% on an average day. History, not a forecast.
The series
Daily values as recorded; the band breaks are quantiles of this history, so they move as the record grows.
Full history is a member feature. Members see the whole recorded series with zoom and pan; anonymous readers get the last 365 days. Members only →
Methodology and honest limits
Bands are quintiles of the metric's own recorded history (five equal-count buckets), recomputed daily, so a band label such as very high means the top 20% of days we have seen, not a fixed threshold.
Forward returns use our own BTC daily close at +1, +3 and +7 calendar days. Medians and up shares are descriptive statistics of the past; nothing here is a prediction, and overlapping 7-day windows mean the effective sample is smaller than the day count.
The record starts on the date shown; for most indicators that is when we began collecting, not when the market began. Metrics with fewer than 30 days in a band carry a thin flag.
FAQ
Is this a trading signal?
No. It is a conditional distribution of what happened after days that looked like today on one indicator. Use it to calibrate expectations, not to trade a single number.
Why do the bands change?
They are quantiles of the recorded history, recomputed every day as the record grows; a value that was very high a month ago may sit in the high band today.
Where is the data from?
Our own daily metric record (metric_daily), built by our collectors; the CC0 metric-daily download carries the same series.