Crypto market brief · 2026-08-11
BTC -1.41% over 24h. Liquidity state: COLLAPSE (58). US traders have bid below the global price for 97 straight days. Fear & Greed 29 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $64011 · -1.41% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.49% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 51 (BALANCED)
- Stablecoin supply: $305.7B · $1.2B 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: COLLAPSE · score 58/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (350 readings), BTC averaged -0.15% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.09%: US bids below global price, day 97 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.12, 37th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: XRPUSDT open interest +8.0% with price -2.2% (shorts building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 2 adding leverage, 4 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 36.3
- 24h taker premium: $6.3M into calls vs $2.0M into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-25SEP26-70000-C · $852622 premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.57 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $85.0M longs vs $27.4M shorts across 42,528 events
- Largest single liquidation: ETHUSDT $2.3M
- No cascade in 24h (2 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$98.8M on 2026-08-07 · day 5 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$49.6M on 2026-08-07 · day 4 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 37 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-04: hedge funds net -7,240 BTC futures contracts (-367 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 5 signals closed in 24h (1 wins / 2 losses) · aggregate net +0.91%
- Best signal: HOMEUSDT LONG +2.47%
- Rolling 30d: 551 trades · 39.0% win rate · net profit factor 0.96