Crypto market brief · 2026-08-12
BTC -0.48% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (54). US traders have bid below the global price for 98 straight days. Fear & Greed 27 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $63705 · -0.48% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.29% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 27 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 47 (BALANCED)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.4B · +$1.2B 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 54/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (2983 readings), BTC averaged -0.31% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.11%: US bids below global price, day 98 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.14, 75th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: LINKUSDT open interest +21.9% with price +4.2% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 4 adding leverage, 1 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 17 symbols long crowded, 13 in short ramp
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 36.1
- 24h taker premium: $2.7M into calls vs $1.9M into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-25SEP26-70000-C · $852622 premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.57 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $74.7M longs vs $30.9M shorts across 46,139 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $2.5M
- No cascade in 24h (2 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $144.7M on 2026-08-10 · day 1 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs $14.6M on 2026-08-10 · day 1 of the outflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 36 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-04: hedge funds net -7,240 BTC futures contracts (-367 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 4 signals closed in 24h (0 wins / 4 losses) · aggregate net -2.91%
- Rolling 30d: 555 trades · 39.1% win rate · net profit factor 0.95