Crypto market brief · 2026-08-13
BTC -0.28% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (62). US traders have bid below the global price for 99 straight days. Fear & Greed 29 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $63587 · -0.28% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.25% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 49 (BALANCED)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.8B · +$153.5M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 62/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (3002 readings), BTC averaged -0.31% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.11%: US bids below global price, day 99 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.12, 17th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: AVAXUSDT open interest +4.3% with price +4.1% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 1 adding leverage, 2 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 35.7
- 24h taker premium: $3.9M into calls vs $2.7M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25SEP26-60000-P · $797928 premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.55 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $57.4M longs vs $58.2M shorts across 49,506 events
- Largest single liquidation: ETHUSDT $3.2M
- No cascade in 24h (2 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$4.9M on 2026-08-11 · day 1 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs $1.8M on 2026-08-11 · day 2 of the outflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 35 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-04: hedge funds net -7,240 BTC futures contracts (-367 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 9 signals closed in 24h (3 wins / 5 losses) · aggregate net -5.13%
- Best signal: BABYUSDT SHORT +5.17%
- Rolling 30d: 565 trades · 38.9% win rate · net profit factor 0.94