Crypto market brief · 2026-09-02
BTC -0.39% over 24h. Liquidity state: COLLAPSE (21). US traders have bid below the global price for 3 straight days. Fear & Greed 63 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $77109 · -0.39% in 24h
- BTC dominance 59.07% · total market cap $2.6T
- Fear & Greed: 63 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 78 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $310.2B · +$487.9M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: COLLAPSE · score 21/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (406 readings), BTC averaged +0.10% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.05%: US bids below global price, day 3 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.13, 44th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: LTCUSDT open interest +3.8% with price -0.1% (quiet)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 1 adding leverage, 4 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 26 symbols long crowded, 4 in short ramp
Whales, positioning and stock perps
What the largest Hyperliquid accounts hold, how Binance accounts are positioned, the stock and commodity perps, and the Korea and Turkey premium.
- Hyperliquid whales (top 300 accounts by equity): $1.3B long vs $1.9B short, 40% long
- BTC whale book: 45% long on $868.4M of open positions
- BTC on Binance: long/short accounts 1.21, top-trader positions 1.97, taker buy/sell 0.65 (1h)
- Stock and commodity perps: 187 contracts, $3.9B open interest; largest XAUUSDT ($487.3M), most liquidated XAUUSDT ($6.1M in 24h)
- Kimchi premium (Upbit BTC) -0.004%, Turkey premium (BtcTurk BTC) +0.030%
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 38.0
- 24h taker premium: $19.2M into calls vs $4.3M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-30OCT26-68000-C · $4.2M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $120.5M longs vs $92.5M shorts across 85,817 events
- Largest single liquidation: AKEUSDT $4.7M
- 1 cascade event detected in 24h, largest $46.7M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $236.5M on 2026-09-01 · day 1 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$11.0M on 2026-09-01 · day 12 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 14 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.7x a normal half hour (17 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-25: hedge funds net -8,089 BTC futures contracts (-650 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 2 signals closed in 24h (0 wins / 1 losses) · aggregate net -2.58%
- Rolling 30d: 97 trades · 42.3% win rate · net profit factor 0.97