Crypto market brief · 2026-09-02
BTC -1.97% over 24h. Liquidity state: GROUND STATE (23). US traders have bid below the global price for 3 straight days. Fear & Greed 63 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $77221 · -1.97% in 24h
- BTC dominance 59.10% · total market cap $2.6T
- Fear & Greed: 63 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 76 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $310.2B · $217.5M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: GROUND STATE · score 23/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (4850 readings), BTC averaged +0.02% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.05%: US bids below global price, day 3 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.13, 55th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: ADAUSDT open interest -3.4% with price -1.6% (long squeeze)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 1 adding leverage, 6 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 24 symbols long crowded, 6 in short ramp
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 38.0
- 24h taker premium: $5.5M into calls vs $5.3M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25DEC26-78000-P · $1.4M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $176.6M longs vs $50.0M shorts across 54,083 events
- Largest single liquidation: ETHUSDT $12.0M
- 1 cascade event detected in 24h, largest $41.5M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$216.7M on 2026-08-31 · day 1 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$87.7M on 2026-08-31 · day 11 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 15 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.7x a normal half hour (17 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-25: hedge funds net -8,089 BTC futures contracts (-650 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- Rolling 30d: 97 trades · 43.3% win rate · net profit factor 1.03