Crypto market brief · 2026-08-14
BTC -0.26% over 24h. Liquidity state: COLLAPSE (55). US traders have bid below the global price for 100 straight days. Fear & Greed 29 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $63397 · -0.26% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.25% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 29 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 48 (BALANCED)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.3B · +$527.9M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: COLLAPSE · score 55/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (360 readings), BTC averaged -0.16% over the next 24h and closed higher 49% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.10%: US bids below global price, day 100 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.15, 81th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: LINKUSDT open interest +5.8% with price +2.7% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 2 adding leverage, 1 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 9 symbols long crowded, 7 in short ramp
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 34.8
- 24h taker premium: $3.3M into calls vs $1.7M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25SEP26-60000-P · $797928 premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.55 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $64.9M longs vs $68.6M shorts across 40,184 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $2.0M
- 1 cascade event detected in 24h, largest $35.1M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $61.2M on 2026-08-12 · day 1 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$7.4M on 2026-08-12 · day 1 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 34 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-04: hedge funds net -7,240 BTC futures contracts (-367 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 4 signals closed in 24h (2 wins / 2 losses) · aggregate net -2.13%
- Best signal: LABUSDT SHORT +2.16%
- Rolling 30d: 569 trades · 39.0% win rate · net profit factor 0.94