Crypto market brief · 2026-08-15
BTC -0.72% over 24h. Liquidity state: COLLAPSE (61). US traders have bid below the global price for 101 straight days. Fear & Greed 34 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $63015 · -0.72% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.09% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 53 (BALANCED)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.5B · +$736.3M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: COLLAPSE · score 61/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (366 readings), BTC averaged -0.17% over the next 24h and closed higher 48% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.11%: US bids below global price, day 101 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.14, 59th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: LINKUSDT open interest +10.9% with price +5.5% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 3 adding leverage, 0 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 34.7
- 24h taker premium: $4.0M into calls vs $5.4M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25SEP26-52000-C · $1.4M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.54 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $58.7M longs vs $44.5M shorts across 47,856 events
- Largest single liquidation: SNDKUSDT $2.1M
- No cascade in 24h (3 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $131.1M on 2026-08-13 · day 2 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$6.7M on 2026-08-13 · day 2 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 33 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-04: hedge funds net -7,240 BTC futures contracts (-367 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 3 signals closed in 24h (1 wins / 1 losses) · aggregate net +6.40%
- Best signal: TUTUSDT SHORT +7.82%
- Rolling 30d: 572 trades · 39.0% win rate · net profit factor 0.95