Crypto market brief · 2026-08-16
BTC +0.03% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (69). US traders have bid below the global price for 102 straight days. Fear & Greed 34 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $62976 · +0.03% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.14% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 34 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 54 (BALANCED)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.4B · +$113.3M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 69/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (3070 readings), BTC averaged -0.31% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.11%: US bids below global price, day 102 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.12, 22th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: AVAXUSDT open interest -7.9% with price -2.9% (long squeeze)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 0 adding leverage, 1 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 19 symbols long crowded, 8 in short ramp
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 35.0
- 24h taker premium: $241819 into calls vs $100061 into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25SEP26-52000-C · $1.4M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $16.8M longs vs $9.2M shorts across 30,244 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $252265
- No cascade in 24h (3 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $57.6M on 2026-08-14 · day 3 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$0 on 2026-08-14 · day 1 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 31 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-11: hedge funds net -7,052 BTC futures contracts (+188 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 5 signals closed in 24h (2 wins / 2 losses) · aggregate net -1.10%
- Best signal: JCTUSDT SHORT +2.94%
- Rolling 30d: 579 trades · 39.2% win rate · net profit factor 0.95