Crypto market brief · 2026-08-18
BTC +2.62% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (53). US traders have bid below the global price for 104 straight days. Fear & Greed 41 (fear).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $64409 · +2.62% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.54% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 41 (Fear)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 55 (OPTIMISTIC)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.1B · +$370.0M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 53/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (3103 readings), BTC averaged -0.29% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.07%: US bids below global price, day 104 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.13, 46th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: AVAXUSDT open interest +4.2% with price +1.3% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 5 adding leverage, 2 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 34.7
- 24h taker premium: $4.2M into calls vs $3.3M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25DEC26-68000-C · $479742 premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $25.3M longs vs $82.1M shorts across 34,018 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $2.6M
- No cascade in 24h (3 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $57.6M on 2026-08-14 · day 3 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$0 on 2026-08-14 · day 1 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 30 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-11: hedge funds net -7,052 BTC futures contracts (+188 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 5 signals closed in 24h (2 wins / 2 losses) · aggregate net +0.25%
- Best signal: ZBTUSDT SHORT +2.27%
- Rolling 30d: 589 trades · 39.2% win rate · net profit factor 0.95