Crypto market brief · 2026-08-19
BTC +0.32% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (41). US traders have bid below the global price for 105 straight days. Fear & Greed 46 (neutral).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $64613 · +0.32% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.63% · total market cap $2.3T
- Fear & Greed: 46 (Neutral)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 56 (OPTIMISTIC)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.5B · +$251.2M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 41/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (3127 readings), BTC averaged -0.28% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.07%: US bids below global price, day 105 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.13, 33th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: SOLUSDT open interest +5.8% with price +1.2% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 1 adding leverage, 2 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 35.0
- 24h taker premium: $3.5M into calls vs $3.1M into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-25JUN27-40000-P · $947182 premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $53.3M longs vs $16.7M shorts across 30,632 events
- Largest single liquidation: COHRUSDT $1.4M
- No cascade in 24h (3 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$297.6M on 2026-08-17 · day 1 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$30.9M on 2026-08-17 · day 1 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 29 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-11: hedge funds net -7,052 BTC futures contracts (+188 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 7 signals closed in 24h (3 wins / 2 losses) · aggregate net +7.02%
- Best signal: VELVETUSDT SHORT +5.14%
- Rolling 30d: 168 trades · 41.1% win rate · net profit factor 1.07