Crypto market brief · 2026-08-20
BTC +7.70% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (33). US traders have bid below the global price for 106 straight days. Fear & Greed 62 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $69589 · +7.70% in 24h
- BTC dominance 56.60% · total market cap $2.5T
- Fear & Greed: 62 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 75 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.8B · +$938.8M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 33/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (3151 readings), BTC averaged -0.26% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.05%: US bids below global price, day 106 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.16, 94th percentile of 90 days: ABOVE the danger line that has historically clustered before volatility
- Biggest OI move: ETHUSDT open interest +16.9% with price +18.2% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 8 adding leverage, 1 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 37.8
- 24h taker premium: $27.1M into calls vs $7.6M into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-26MAR27-82000-C · $1.2M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $49.3M longs vs $80.9M shorts across 37,549 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $4.1M
- No cascade in 24h (3 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$189.3M on 2026-08-18 · day 2 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$71.5M on 2026-08-18 · day 2 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 28 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-11: hedge funds net -7,052 BTC futures contracts (+188 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 5 signals closed in 24h (1 wins / 4 losses) · aggregate net +1.61%
- Best signal: BEATUSDT SHORT +6.31%
- Rolling 30d: 171 trades · 40.4% win rate · net profit factor 1.05