Crypto market brief · 2026-08-21
BTC +5.92% over 24h. Liquidity state: SUPERPOSITION (8). US traders have bid below the global price for 107 straight days. Fear & Greed 72 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $73710 · +5.92% in 24h
- BTC dominance 58.87% · total market cap $2.5T
- Fear & Greed: 72 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 77 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $307.9B · +$1.0B 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: SUPERPOSITION · score 8/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (3169 readings), BTC averaged -0.21% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.02%: US bids below global price, day 107 of the streak
- Today's premium is a 90-day HIGH
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.14, 71th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: AVAXUSDT open interest +17.3% with price +7.2% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 9 adding leverage, 1 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 39.3
- 24h taker premium: $39.4M into calls vs $10.0M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25SEP26-70000-C · $1.7M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $101.8M longs vs $503.1M shorts across 81,623 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $14.1M
- 3 cascade events detected in 24h, largest $124.2M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$517.2M on 2026-08-19 · day 3 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$189.2M on 2026-08-19 · day 3 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 27 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-11: hedge funds net -7,052 BTC futures contracts (+188 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 50 signals closed in 24h (18 wins / 25 losses) · aggregate net +14.27%
- Best signal: TUTUSDT SHORT +3.47%
- Rolling 30d: 199 trades · 43.2% win rate · net profit factor 1.15