Crypto market brief · 2026-08-22
BTC +7.08% over 24h. Liquidity state: COLLAPSE (0). US traders have bid below the global price for 108 straight days. Fear & Greed 71 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $78369 · +7.08% in 24h
- BTC dominance 58.99% · total market cap $2.7T
- Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 84 (EXTREME EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $308.5B · +$471.6M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: COLLAPSE · score 0/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (392 readings), BTC averaged +0.14% over the next 24h and closed higher 52% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.02%: US bids below global price, day 108 of the streak
- Today's premium is a 90-day HIGH
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.14, 66th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: LTCUSDT open interest +23.0% with price +11.4% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 10 adding leverage, 0 squeezing out
- Top-17 perp positioning: 8 symbols long crowded, 4 in short ramp
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 43.3
- 24h taker premium: $52.4M into calls vs $19.2M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25SEP26-82000-C · $2.4M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.59 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $225.1M longs vs $723.8M shorts across 135,553 events
- Largest single liquidation: ETHUSDT $11.7M
- 3 cascade events detected in 24h, largest $241.6M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$606.3M on 2026-08-20 · day 4 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$220.8M on 2026-08-20 · day 4 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 26 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-11: hedge funds net -7,052 BTC futures contracts (+188 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- Rolling 30d: 199 trades · 43.2% win rate · net profit factor 1.15