Crypto market brief · 2026-08-25
BTC +1.54% over 24h. Liquidity state: GROUND STATE (1). US traders have bid below the global price for 111 straight days. Fear & Greed 74 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $78850 · +1.54% in 24h
- BTC dominance 59.06% · total market cap $2.7T
- Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 78 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $310.0B · +$1.0B 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: GROUND STATE · score 1/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (4849 readings), BTC averaged +0.02% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.01%: US bids below global price, day 111 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.11, 15th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: SOLUSDT open interest +8.0% with price +5.4% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 3 adding leverage, 3 squeezing out
- Top-23 perp positioning: 8 symbols long crowded, 3 in short ramp
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 43.5
- 24h taker premium: $41.2M into calls vs $6.4M into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-4SEP26-78000-C · $2.4M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.61 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $147.3M longs vs $144.7M shorts across 61,362 events
- Largest single liquidation: ETHUSDT $5.0M
- 2 cascade events detected in 24h, largest $33.7M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$307.5M on 2026-08-21 · day 5 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$184.9M on 2026-08-21 · day 5 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 23 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-18: hedge funds net -7,439 BTC futures contracts (-387 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- Rolling 30d: 199 trades · 43.2% win rate · net profit factor 1.15