Crypto market brief · 2026-08-26
BTC -0.25% over 24h. Liquidity state: GROUND STATE (0). US traders have bid below the global price for 112 straight days. Fear & Greed 65 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $78545 · -0.25% in 24h
- BTC dominance 59.25% · total market cap $2.6T
- Fear & Greed: 65 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 72 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $310.1B · +$1.2B 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: GROUND STATE · score 0/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (4849 readings), BTC averaged +0.03% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.02%: US bids below global price, day 112 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.12, 35th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: ADAUSDT open interest -10.5% with price -6.4% (long squeeze)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 0 adding leverage, 10 squeezing out
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 43.1
- 24h taker premium: $44.7M into calls vs $9.8M into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-25SEP26-82000-C · $4.1M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.59 · call wall at $70000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $231.4M longs vs $99.6M shorts across 63,826 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $11.9M
- 3 cascade events detected in 24h, largest $65.0M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$337.6M on 2026-08-24 · day 6 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$115.6M on 2026-08-24 · day 6 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 22 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.9x a normal half hour (24 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-18: hedge funds net -7,439 BTC futures contracts (-387 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- Rolling 30d: 199 trades · 43.2% win rate · net profit factor 1.15