Crypto market brief · 2026-08-31
BTC +1.03% over 24h. Liquidity state: GROUND STATE (16). US traders have bid below the global price for 1 straight days. Fear & Greed 62 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $78512 · +1.03% in 24h
- BTC dominance 59.16% · total market cap $2.7T
- Fear & Greed: 62 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 67 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $310.8B · $341.2M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: GROUND STATE · score 16/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (4850 readings), BTC averaged +0.03% over the next 24h and closed higher 51% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.02%: US bids below global price, day 1 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.11, 18th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: ETHUSDT open interest +3.5% with price +2.3% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 6 adding leverage, 0 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 20 symbols long crowded, 10 in short ramp
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 36.9
- 24h taker premium: $6.1M into calls vs $3.1M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-25DEC26-82000-C · $607988 premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $82.4M longs vs $80.5M shorts across 48,633 events
- Largest single liquidation: ETHUSDT $4.9M
- No cascade in 24h (25 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs $201.8M on 2026-08-28 · day 1 of the outflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$102.2M on 2026-08-28 · day 10 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 16 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.7x a normal half hour (17 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-08-25: hedge funds net -8,089 BTC futures contracts (-650 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 1 signals closed in 24h (0 wins / 1 losses) · aggregate net +1.55%
- Rolling 30d: 99 trades · 43.4% win rate · net profit factor 1.03