Get started
Daily market brief

Crypto market brief · 2026-09-04

BTC -2.04% over 24h. Liquidity state: GROUND STATE (2). US traders have bid below the global price for 5 straight days. Fear & Greed 74 (greed).

This is the archived market brief for 2026-09-04. The numbers below reflect the market at the end of that day. View today's brief →

Market pulse

Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.

  • BTC $79629 · -2.04% in 24h
  • BTC dominance 59.22% · total market cap $2.7T
  • Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed)
  • Retail Euphoria Index: 79 (EUPHORIA)
  • Stablecoin supply: $310.4B · +$255.9M 24h

Liquidity & stress

ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.

  • PsiCharge state: GROUND STATE · score 2/100
  • In this state over the last 12 months (4825 readings), BTC averaged +0.01% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
  • Coinbase Premium -0.01%: US bids below global price, day 5 of the streak

Flow & positioning

Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.

  • BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.15, 84th percentile of 90 days
  • Biggest OI move: XRPUSDT open interest -9.8% with price -3.7% (long squeeze)
  • Across 10 tracked majors: 0 adding leverage, 10 squeezing out
  • Top-30 perp positioning: 25 symbols long crowded, 5 in short ramp

Whales, positioning and stock perps

What the largest Hyperliquid accounts hold, how Binance accounts are positioned, the stock and commodity perps, and the Korea and Turkey premium.

  • Hyperliquid whales (top 300 accounts by equity): $1.3B long vs $2.1B short, 39% long
  • BTC whale book: 38% long on $822.5M of open positions
  • BTC on Binance: long/short accounts 1.02, top-trader positions 2.16, taker buy/sell 1.15 (1h)
  • Stock and commodity perps: 188 contracts, $4.1B open interest; largest SPCXUSDT ($434.4M), most liquidated SNDKUSDT ($12.4M in 24h)
  • Kimchi premium (Upbit BTC) +0.018%, Turkey premium (BtcTurk BTC) +0.011%

Options desk

Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.

  • BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 39.7
  • 24h taker premium: $18.4M into calls vs $4.5M into puts
  • Largest print: sell BTC-30OCT26-90000-C · $2.2M premium
  • Put/call OI ratio 0.55 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000

Liquidations

Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.

  • 24h wipeouts: $197.7M longs vs $97.6M shorts across 75,459 events
  • Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $23.2M
  • 1 cascade event detected in 24h, largest $144.3M

ETF flows

US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.

  • BTC ETFs +$730.9M on 2026-09-03 · day 2 of the inflow streak
  • ETH ETFs +$141.4M on 2026-09-03 · day 1 of the inflow streak

Calendar

What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.

  • FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 12 days
  • Fed days move BTC 2.7x a normal half hour (17 meetings measured)
  • CFTC week of 2026-08-25: hedge funds net -8,089 BTC futures contracts (-650 WoW)

Signal desk

Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.

  • 8 signals closed in 24h (2 wins / 4 losses) · aggregate net +3.30%
  • Rolling 30d: 95 trades · 47.4% win rate · net profit factor 1.07