Crypto market brief · 2026-09-05
BTC +0.85% over 24h. Liquidity state: GROUND STATE (11). US traders have bid above the global price for 1 straight days. Fear & Greed 73 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $79674 · +0.85% in 24h
- BTC dominance 58.93% · total market cap $2.7T
- Fear & Greed: 73 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 81 (EXTREME EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $311.5B · +$404.0M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: GROUND STATE · score 11/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (4825 readings), BTC averaged +0.01% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium +0.02%: US buyers above global price, day 1 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.13, 39th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: BNBUSDT open interest +19.5% with price +7.7% (longs building)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 7 adding leverage, 0 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 23 symbols long crowded, 7 in short ramp
Whales, positioning and stock perps
What the largest Hyperliquid accounts hold, how Binance accounts are positioned, the stock and commodity perps, and the Korea and Turkey premium.
- Hyperliquid whales (top 300 accounts by equity): $1.4B long vs $2.1B short, 40% long
- BTC whale book: 39% long on $822.2M of open positions
- BTC on Binance: long/short accounts 1.05, top-trader positions 2.11, taker buy/sell 0.95 (1h)
- Stock and commodity perps: 188 contracts, $4.1B open interest; largest SPCXUSDT ($437.4M), most liquidated SNDKUSDT ($9.5M in 24h)
- Kimchi premium (Upbit BTC) -0.124%, Turkey premium (BtcTurk BTC) -0.030%
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 38.0
- 24h taker premium: $4.6M into calls vs $1.3M into puts
- Largest print: sell BTC-30OCT26-90000-C · $2.2M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.55 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $37.9M longs vs $58.8M shorts across 50,530 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $4.4M
- No cascade in 24h (32 in the last 30 days)
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$730.9M on 2026-09-03 · day 2 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$141.4M on 2026-09-03 · day 1 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 11 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.7x a normal half hour (17 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-09-01: hedge funds net -7,620 BTC futures contracts (+469 WoW)
Signal desk
Our automated engine's honest numbers: every trade published, net of fees, slippage, and funding.
- 5 signals closed in 24h (1 wins / 3 losses) · aggregate net -3.71%
- Rolling 30d: 92 trades · 46.7% win rate · net profit factor 0.99