Crypto market brief · 2026-09-09
BTC -0.70% over 24h. Liquidity state: GROUND STATE (21). US traders have bid below the global price for 4 straight days. Fear & Greed 66 (greed).
Market pulse
Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.
- BTC $78708 · -0.70% in 24h
- BTC dominance 58.38% · total market cap $2.7T
- Fear & Greed: 66 (Greed)
- Retail Euphoria Index: 78 (EUPHORIA)
- Stablecoin supply: $310.9B · $129.7M 24h
Liquidity & stress
ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.
- PsiCharge state: GROUND STATE · score 21/100
- In this state over the last 12 months (4824 readings), BTC averaged +0.00% over the next 24h and closed higher 50% of the time
- Coinbase Premium -0.01%: US bids below global price, day 4 of the streak
Flow & positioning
Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.
- BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.13, 33th percentile of 90 days
- Biggest OI move: LINKUSDT open interest -5.0% with price -2.2% (long squeeze)
- Across 10 tracked majors: 1 adding leverage, 5 squeezing out
- Top-30 perp positioning: 22 symbols long crowded, 8 in short ramp
Whales, positioning and stock perps
What the largest Hyperliquid accounts hold, how Binance accounts are positioned, the stock and commodity perps, and the Korea and Turkey premium.
- Hyperliquid whales (top 300 accounts by equity): $1.3B long vs $2.2B short, 36% long
- BTC whale book: 33% long on $685.7M of open positions
- BTC on Binance: long/short accounts 1.30, top-trader positions 2.14, taker buy/sell 1.16 (1h)
- Stock and commodity perps: 190 contracts, $4.3B open interest; largest SPCXUSDT ($440.8M), most liquidated SNDKUSDT ($5.6M in 24h)
- Kimchi premium (Upbit BTC) +0.008%, Turkey premium (BtcTurk BTC) -0.392%
Options desk
Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.
- BTC implied volatility (DVOL): 40.1
- 24h taker premium: $6.7M into calls vs $2.5M into puts
- Largest print: buy BTC-30OCT26-75000-C · $1.5M premium
- Put/call OI ratio 0.53 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000
Liquidations
Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.
- 24h wipeouts: $112.5M longs vs $67.0M shorts across 72,408 events
- Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $3.0M
- 1 cascade event detected in 24h, largest $33.7M
ETF flows
US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.
- BTC ETFs +$174.6M on 2026-09-04 · day 3 of the inflow streak
- ETH ETFs +$26.5M on 2026-09-04 · day 2 of the inflow streak
Calendar
What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.
- FOMC statement · September 15-16, 2026 in 8 days
- Fed days move BTC 2.7x a normal half hour (17 meetings measured)
- CFTC week of 2026-09-01: hedge funds net -7,620 BTC futures contracts (+469 WoW)