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Daily market brief

Crypto market brief · 2026-09-18

BTC +5.43% over 24h. Liquidity state: COLLAPSE (63). US traders have bid below the global price for 13 straight days. Fear & Greed 56 (greed).

This is the archived market brief for 2026-09-18. The numbers below reflect the market at the end of that day. View today's brief →

Market pulse

Where the market stands right now: price, dominance, sentiment, and sideline capital.

  • BTC $80748 · +5.43% in 24h
  • BTC dominance 58.54% · total market cap $2.8T
  • Fear & Greed: 56 (Greed)
  • Retail Euphoria Index: 68 (EUPHORIA)
  • Stablecoin supply: $311.0B · +$271.0M 24h

Liquidity & stress

ByKaranteli's own liquidity-state model plus the gap between US-regulated and global pricing.

  • PsiCharge state: COLLAPSE · score 63/100
  • In this state over the last 12 months (426 readings), BTC averaged +0.19% over the next 24h and closed higher 52% of the time
  • Coinbase Premium -0.09%: US bids below global price, day 13 of the streak

Flow & positioning

Order-flow toxicity and where leveraged open interest moved in the last 24 hours.

  • BTC order-flow toxicity (VPIN) 0.17, 96th percentile of 90 days: ABOVE the danger line that has historically clustered before volatility
  • Biggest OI move: AVAXUSDT open interest +19.3% with price +6.7% (longs building)
  • Across 10 tracked majors: 10 adding leverage, 0 squeezing out
  • Top-30 perp positioning: 23 symbols long crowded, 7 in short ramp

Whales, positioning and stock perps

What the largest Hyperliquid accounts hold, how Binance accounts are positioned, the stock and commodity perps, and the Korea and Turkey premium.

  • Hyperliquid whales (top 300 accounts by equity): $1.6B long vs $2.6B short, 38% long
  • BTC whale book: 43% long on $1.0B of open positions
  • BTC on Binance: long/short accounts 1.12, top-trader positions 2.13, taker buy/sell 1.28 (1h)
  • Stock and commodity perps: 197 contracts, $4.4B open interest; largest XAUUSDT ($473.0M), most liquidated SNDKUSDT ($4.6M in 24h)
  • Kimchi premium (Upbit BTC) -0.132%, Turkey premium (BtcTurk BTC) -0.031%

Options desk

Implied volatility and what the tape actually paid for in the last 24 hours.

  • BTC implied volatility (DVOL) 33.6: a 1-year LOW
  • 24h taker premium: $10.1M into calls vs $4.8M into puts
  • Largest print: sell BTC-25DEC26-45000-C · $1.1M premium
  • Put/call OI ratio 0.56 · call wall at $80000, put wall at $60000

Liquidations

Forced liquidations recorded across our exchange feeds in the last 24 hours.

  • 24h wipeouts: $49.1M longs vs $307.1M shorts across 84,807 events
  • Largest single liquidation: BTCUSDT $3.6M
  • 1 cascade event detected in 24h, largest $138.9M

ETF flows

US spot ETF net flows, last finalized trading day.

  • BTC ETFs +$159.5M on 2026-09-17 · day 1 of the inflow streak
  • ETH ETFs $39.2M on 2026-09-17 · day 3 of the outflow streak

Calendar

What is scheduled, and what similar days have actually done to price.

  • FOMC statement · October 27-28, 2026 in 40 days
  • Fed days move BTC 2.6x a normal half hour (18 meetings measured)
  • CFTC week of 2026-09-08: hedge funds net -7,892 BTC futures contracts (-272 WoW)