Base rate
How often an outcome happens across all observations, the figure a filtered statistic has to beat to mean anything.
A base rate is the unconditional frequency of an outcome: the share of all hours after which the price rose, or the median move over every recorded day, with no pattern or band applied. A conditional figure is only informative next to it; when the share after a pattern sits close to the base rate, the pattern added little. How to read it: on the LiqMap playbook table the base rate is the share of all hours whose price rose over the next 4 hours, and on the factor board it is the median BTC move over every recorded day. Read each conditional figure against it first. No row prints below 30 observations.
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