Where Are the Big Bitcoin Options Bets?
In the 2026-10-07 snapshot, the call wall above price is at $100K and the put wall below price at $30K. Deribit's implied volatility index (DVOL) is 36.2. The front expiry, 9OCT26 (1 day out), has its max pain at $85K; its ATM implied volatility prices a one standard deviation move of ±1.9% (±$1.6K). Open interest is read from the OKX chain only.
Options traders leave footprints: open interest piles up at the strikes they care about, and market makers hedging those positions can dampen or amplify price moves. This page reads those footprints daily: where the walls are, where dealer hedging flips direction, and how expensive protection is right now. It reads the listed option chains of Deribit, Bybit, Binance, OKX and Delta Exchange, summed or one venue at a time.
Venues contributing: 5 of 5 · all fresh · as of 00:25 UTC
Where are the walls?
Each bar is open interest at one strike. The tallest call and put bars are the strikes where the most contracts expire; the chart shows where they sit, not how price will react.
Where does dealer hedging flip?
Net gamma exposure per strike: above zero, market makers hedge against the move and calm the market; below zero, their hedging pushes in the same direction and amplifies it. (> 0 = stabilizing · < 0 = amplifying)
How expensive is protection?
DVOL is Deribit's 30-day volatility index, like the VIX for crypto. Only Deribit publishes it, so it does not change with the venue switch. High readings mean fear is priced in; unusually low readings mean insurance is cheap.
What does the market expect next?
At-the-money implied volatility by expiry. An upward slope is normal; a hump around one date means the market is pricing a specific event there.
Where is max pain, expiry by expiry?
One row per listed expiry, nearest first; the highlighted row is the front expiry, the one the headline figures read. Max pain is the strike where the open calls and puts of that expiry would pay their holders the least at settlement: where option holders as a group would lose the most. It is a reading of open interest, not a forecast; nothing says price goes there. The implied move is one standard deviation, ATM IV × √(days/365), shown as a share of spot and in dollars.
| Expiry | Days | Call OI | Put OI | P/C | Max pain | ATM IV % | Implied move ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9OCT26front | 1 | 1.3K BTC | 1.9K BTC | 1.42 | $85K | 29.9 | ±1.9% · ±$1.6K |
| 10OCT26 | 2 | 69 BTC | 64 BTC | 0.93 | $86K | 29.9 | ±2.4% · ±$2.1K |
| 16OCT26 | 8 | 657 BTC | 747 BTC | 1.14 | $85K | 31.4 | ±4.8% · ±$4.1K |
| 23OCT26 | 15 | 246 BTC | 100 BTC | 0.41 | $86K | 32.0 | ±6.6% · ±$5.6K |
| 30OCT26 | 22 | 2.6K BTC | 2.9K BTC | 1.08 | $82K | 33.4 | ±8.3% · ±$7.1K |
| 27NOV26 | 50 | 716 BTC | 1.2K BTC | 1.61 | $84K | 35.9 | ±13% · ±$11.5K |
| 25DEC26 | 78 | 4.2K BTC | 3.2K BTC | 0.76 | $75K | 36.6 | ±17% · ±$14.5K |
| 26MAR27 | 169 | 1.4K BTC | 3.6K BTC | 2.50 | $75K | 37.4 | ±25% · ±$21.9K |
| 25JUN27 | 260 | 534 BTC | 360 BTC | 0.68 | $75K | 38.4 | ±32% · ±$27.8K |
| 24SEP27 | 351 | 117 BTC | 28 BTC | 0.24 | $70K | 39.0 | ±38% · ±$32.8K |
Implied volatility surface
Mark IV by expiry and moneyness (ln(strike/spot)), OI-weighted within each cell, from the daily Deribit chain. Hot cells are where the market pays most for protection or upside; an empty cell means no listed strike sits there, not zero volatility.
| Expiry | Days | ATM IV % | 25d put IV | 25d call IV | Skew (pp) | Butterfly (pp) | Strikes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8OCT26 | 1 | 28.7 | 28.3 | 31.4 | -3.13 | +1.16 | 30 |
| 9OCT26 | 2 | 30.0 | 30.5 | 32.1 | -1.57 | +1.23 | 30 |
| 10OCT26 | 3 | 30.0 | 29.8 | 32.1 | -2.27 | +0.93 | 29 |
| 16OCT26 | 9 | 31.7 | 31.6 | 33.2 | -1.61 | +0.74 | 20 |
| 23OCT26 | 16 | 32.0 | 32.5 | 33.2 | -0.68 | +0.78 | 23 |
| 30OCT26 | 23 | 33.2 | 34.1 | 34.1 | +0.00 | +0.91 | 56 |
| 27NOV26 | 51 | 36.0 | 37.3 | 36.6 | +0.73 | +0.91 | 48 |
| 25DEC26 | 79 | 36.6 | 38.1 | 36.9 | +1.17 | +0.93 | 59 |
| 26MAR27 | 170 | 37.5 | 39.0 | 37.9 | +1.10 | +0.91 | 52 |
| 25JUN27 | 261 | 38.5 | 40.1 | 38.9 | +1.20 | +0.94 | 54 |
| 24SEP27 | 352 | 39.0 | 40.4 | 39.4 | +1.04 | +0.87 | 41 |
Deltas are Black-Scholes with each instrument's own mark IV; the 25-delta points are linear interpolations between the two nearest listed strikes. No surface model is fitted, so a thin expiry shows as thin.
ATM IV and 25-delta skew, constant 30 days
The headline pair interpolated to a constant 30-day maturity, recorded daily. Skew is the 25-delta put IV minus the 25-delta call IV in percentage points: positive means downside protection costs more than upside.
Last 24 hours, hour by hour
The chain is also captured every hour on every venue. The line follows the at-the-money implied volatility of the front expiry hour by hour, the table shows how open interest moved per expiry over the last hour and the last 24 hours, and the list names the contracts whose open interest changed the most. A change counts only the venues present in both hours.
Is front-expiry volatility rising or falling today?
9OCT26 ATM IV 28.9%-1.8 pp over 24 hours
How did open interest move per expiry?
| Expiry | Days | Open interest | 1h change | 24h change | ATM IV % | IV 24h (pp) | Max pain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9OCT26 | 1 | 4.0K BTC | +22.2 BTC | +895 BTC | 28.9 | -1.8 | $85K |
| 10OCT26 | 2 | 809 BTC | +13.8 BTC | +710 BTC | 30.3 | +0.5 | $84K |
| 11OCT26 | 3 | 227 BTC | 0 BTC | +227 BTC | 26.9 | - | $83K |
| 16OCT26 | 8 | 1.5K BTC | +1.5 BTC | +81.1 BTC | 31.7 | +0.2 | $85K |
| 23OCT26 | 15 | 438 BTC | 0 BTC | +93.1 BTC | 32.5 | +0.3 | $85K |
| 30OCT26 | 22 | 5.6K BTC | 0 BTC | +107 BTC | 33.5 | +0.2 | $82K |
| 27NOV26 | 50 | 1.9K BTC | +0.9 BTC | +69.1 BTC | 36.1 | +0.0 | $85K |
| 25DEC26 | 78 | 7.4K BTC | +0.1 BTC | +98.3 BTC | 36.8 | +0.1 | $75K |
| 26MAR27 | 169 | 5.1K BTC | 0 BTC | +10.7 BTC | 37.5 | -0.0 | $75K |
| 25JUN27 | 260 | 900 BTC | 0 BTC | +6.8 BTC | 38.4 | -0.0 | $75K |
| 24SEP27 | 351 | 160 BTC | 0 BTC | +15.7 BTC | 38.9 | -0.2 | $70K |
Which contracts changed the most?
Open interest change over 24 hours
| Contract | Open interest | Change | Mark IV % |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 9OCT26 $86K Call | 491 BTC | +428 BTC | 33.8 |
| BTC 9OCT26 $84K Put | 148 BTC | -281 BTC | 29.1 |
| BTC 11OCT26 $78K Put | 149 BTC | +149 BTC | 36.5 |
| BTC 10OCT26 $88K Call | 151 BTC | +148 BTC | 36.0 |
| BTC 9OCT26 $79K Put | 170 BTC | +137 BTC | 44.2 |
| BTC 9OCT26 $86K Call | 161 BTC | +130 BTC | 32.1 |
| BTC 10OCT26 $84K Call | 108 BTC | +108 BTC | 30.4 |
| BTC 9OCT26 $88K Call | 122 BTC | +75.6 BTC | 39.8 |
| BTC 25DEC26 $70K Put | 401 BTC | +68.0 BTC | 40.1 |
| BTC 10OCT26 $88K Call | 68.3 BTC | +65.8 BTC | 35.1 |
What happened after days like this?
Every recorded day is grouped by where this metric sat; each band shows the median BTC move that followed. Distribution, not prediction.
Today sits in the "Very low" band of 5 years of daily records. Days like this led to a median +0.0% BTC move over the next 7 days (n=398), about the same as any other day (+0.2%). No edge either way, and we say so.
| Band | Range | Days | Next 24h | Next 72h | Next 7d | Up next 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very lowtoday | 32.4 … 42.7 | 398 | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | 50% |
| Low | 42.7 … 52.2 | 404 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.4% | 53% |
| Mid | 52.2 … 59.5 | 406 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +0.7% | 55% |
| High | 59.5 … 76.9 | 403 | +0.0% | +0.1% | -0.2% | 48% |
| Very high | 76.9 … 156.2 | 404 | +0.0% | +0.2% | -0.2% | 50% |
| All days (base rate) | 2015 | +0.0% | +0.2% | +0.2% | 51% |
Median BTC move after each band. Records since 2021-03-24 (2022 days). History, not a forecast.
Methodology and honest caveats
The snapshot reads the listed BTC and ETH option chains of Deribit, Bybit, Binance, OKX and Delta Exchange once a day at 00:25 UTC: per-strike open interest and mark implied volatility. "All venues" sums open interest per expiry, strike and type across every venue; implied volatility comes from Deribit for every contract it lists (the deepest book, and mixing USDT, USDC and inverse quotes by open interest blurred the smile) and from the venues that list a contract Deribit does not. A venue that missed a capture is used with its own latest chain day, and that day is shown. Open interest is counted in coins on every venue, though settlement differs: Deribit (coin-margined), Bybit (settled in USDC), Binance (settled in USDT), OKX (coin-margined), Delta Exchange (settled in USD on the India platform). Chain history on file: Deribit from 2026-08-06; Bybit and Binance from 2026-09-21; OKX and Delta Exchange from 2026-09-23. DVOL is Deribit's index and is the same whatever the venue. The call wall is the strike above price with the largest call open interest and the put wall the strike below price with the largest put open interest; the largest bars on the whole axis are reported separately in the API. The ATM term structure and the surface table share one definition: calls and puts interpolated at the money, so one expiry shows one ATM number.
Gamma exposure uses the standard Black-Scholes gamma of every open contract and the market convention that dealers are net long calls and net short puts. That convention is an assumption, not an observation: nobody outside the market makers knows their true book. Read GEX as a map of where hedging pressure could concentrate, not a forecast.
The zero-gamma level is the spot price at which total net GEX would cross zero. Below it, dealer hedging tends to chase price (amplifying moves); above it, hedging leans against price (dampening moves).
FAQ
What is a call wall or put wall?
The strike above price where the most call open interest sits, or the strike below price where the most put open interest sits. They mark where dealer hedging is most concentrated, so they are reference levels for the days into expiry, not targets; a large put wall also shows the level traders are paying to defend.
What is gamma exposure (GEX) in plain terms?
When market makers sell options, they hedge by trading the underlying. Gamma measures how fast that hedge has to change as price moves. When net gamma is positive, their hedging pushes against the move and the market tends to be calmer; when it is negative, their hedging pushes with the move and swings get bigger.
What is DVOL?
A 30-day forward-looking volatility index for crypto, built from option prices the same way the VIX is built from S&P 500 options. DVOL around 40 means the options market expects roughly a 40% annualized move; spikes mark fear, unusual lows mean protection is cheap.
What is max pain?
For one expiry, the strike at which the open calls and puts would pay their holders the least if price settled there, summed from open interest in coins times each contract's distance to that strike. It is where option holders as a group would lose the most at expiry. It is not a forecast: nothing says price goes there, and the level moves as open interest changes from one daily snapshot to the next. The expiry table lists it for every expiry; the stat row shows the nearest one. The headline uses the nearest expiry at least one day out that carries at least a twentieth of the largest expiry's open interest, so a thin daily contract never sets it.
What is the implied move?
The one standard deviation move the options market prices for an expiry: ATM implied volatility × √(days to expiry / 365), shown as a percent of spot and in dollars. With ATM IV at 50% and 30 days left, that is about ±14%. It describes what options cost today, not where price will be.
How current is this data?
The option chain snapshot updates once a day at 00:25 UTC and the page notes its snapshot date. Positioning moves slowly day to day, but for intraday trading around events, treat this as the morning map rather than a live feed.
Which options venues are included?
Deribit, Bybit, Binance, OKX and Delta Exchange. The venue switch shows one venue or all of them summed. Every chain is recorded by our own daily capture; history on file: Deribit from 2026-08-06; Bybit and Binance from 2026-09-21; OKX and Delta Exchange from 2026-09-23. The implied volatility surface and DVOL come from Deribit's chain only.
Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/options, data as of 2026-10-07 UTC