Crypto market brief · 2026-11-04

Bitcoin ETFs post third straight day of outflows

US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a third straight session of net outflows on Nov 3, with -$115.6M leaving the group. IBIT carried most of that on its own at -$95.0M.

Across the five sessions to Nov 3, net flow for the Bitcoin funds came to -$1.00B. Ether funds also saw money leave on the same day, -$85.3M.

Even after the run of withdrawals, the Bitcoin funds held $99.16B in net assets on Nov 3, against $56.47B of cumulative net inflow.

Since 2025, days in this low band saw a median +0.4% BTC move over the next 7d (n=120, base -0.4%, 1y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-1331-etf-flows, data as of 2026-11-04 13:31 UTC

US traders extend their discount to 60 days

A 2.49% rise in Bitcoin over the 24 hours to Nov 4 did not change where Americans price it. US traders have now bid $BTC below the global price for 60 straight days, with Bitcoin at $78,469.

Bitcoin holds 59.35% of a $2.6T crypto market, and the Fear & Greed index reads 34, in fear.

Trading was more one sided than usual. VPIN, a gauge of how lopsided aggressive order flow is, read 0.15, the 76th percentile of the past 90 days. The biggest move in open futures bets came on $LTC, up 6.5% with price up 1.6%, as longs built positions.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-0900-daily-brief, data as of 2026-11-04 09:00 UTC

Block buyers stack $78,000 Bitcoin calls

Three negotiated trades bought the same Bitcoin contract over the past two days: $78,000 calls expiring Nov 7, which pay if $BTC finishes above that price at expiry. They cost $861.3K, $860.7K and $791.0K, the three largest single trades we recorded in that window.

Block trades, arranged off the order book and then reported to the venue, carried 53% of all premium dollars in the 24 hours to Nov 4, across 25,599 recorded trades.

Buyers spent $10.0M on calls against $8.6M on puts, the contracts that pay on a fall, so bets on a higher price drew the larger amount.

Since 2021, days in this very low band saw a median -0.2% BTC move over the next 7d (n=404, base +0.1%, 5y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-0810-options-flow-daily, data as of 2026-11-04 08:10 UTC

Coinbase discount on Bitcoin hits 60 days

Sixty days. That is how long Bitcoin has traded cheaper on Coinbase than on global venues, with Nov 3 extending the run. American buyers paid -0.151% under the world price for $BTC that day.

The gap was a little shallower than its recent norm. The seven day average for the same discount came in at -0.190%.

Dated futures told a different story. Quarterly contracts were priced above spot at an annualized +5.87%, meaning traders buying exposure through the quarter accepted a yearly premium over the spot price to get it.

Since 2017, days in this very low band saw a median -0.2% BTC move over the next 7d (n=667, base +0.5%, 9y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-0720-premium-daily, data as of 2026-11-04 07:20 UTC

Hashrate holds above last month on thin fees

Sending Bitcoin cost just 1.0 sat/vB on Nov 3, yet the network's computing power was still higher than a month earlier. Sat/vB is the fee paid per unit of transaction data, and miners took 440.0 BTC in total revenue for the day.

Our node read hashrate, the machine power securing the chain, at 1040 EH/s. That is -4.8% over 7 days and +1.0% over 30 days.

Difficulty, the bar every miner has to clear to find a block, stood at 148.36T on the same date.

Since 2017, days in this very high band saw a median +0.0% BTC move over the next 7d (n=642, base +0.5%, 8y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-0540-network-daily, data as of 2026-11-03 00:20 UTC

Ether shorts get squeezed for $8.0M

The latest Ether move landed almost entirely on one side. In the last 30 minutes, the major venues liquidated $8.0M of $ETH short positions, the bets on a lower price.

Long positions barely registered, with $75.8K closed by force over the same half hour.

These figures come from the raw liquidation streams of the major venues, so they cover those exchanges only.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-0837-event-liq-burst, data as of 2026-11-04 08:37 UTC

DAI trades below its dollar peg on 3 venues

A dollar of $DAI fetched as little as $0.9881 on one venue in a 10 minute snapshot of three exchanges.

None of the three had it at par. The best quote was $0.9999 and the median $0.9941, so anyone selling on these venues received less than a dollar for each coin.

These are prices on individual venues, not a reading of redemptions. A venue level discount like this does not by itself mean the stablecoin's backing is in question.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-0307-event-peg-stress, data as of 2026-11-04 03:07 UTC

Leveraged longs just ate a $104.3M flush

Crypto just saw $104.3M of leveraged positions closed by force in 60 minutes, across 880 coins on the major venues. Almost all of it, $103.2M, came from traders betting on a rise. Shorts lost only $1.1M. The hit came fast, with $97.7M of the total in the last 30 minutes.

Bitcoin longs lost $32.1M and $ETH longs lost $20.5M. The largest single closure was a $5.0M Ether long on Binance at $2,231 at 03:02 UTC, a minute after a $3.0M Bitcoin long went at $75,952 on the same exchange.

$BTC last traded at $75,827, down 1.15% over 24 hours, with a session low of $75,760.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-04#2026-11-04-0306-event-liq-cascade, data as of 2026-11-04 03:06 UTC

A buyer took the day's largest forced close

Bitcoin finished the 24 hours to Nov 4 at +0.53%, last at $77,196, and the heaviest forced closure of the window still landed on a trader positioned for a higher price.

The top hit was a long liquidation of $8.8M on Binance, the size of the position the exchange closed. Across the window our collectors logged 1,589 recorded prints of $1K or more.

The liquidation heatmap behind the candles is an estimate; the prints on them are recorded.

MEXC shuts USDC withdrawals on NEAR

USDC can no longer leave MEXC over NEAR. The exchange just marked withdrawals on that network as closed in its own currency list, picked up in our daily read.

Those stuck are $USDC holders on MEXC who meant to send funds to a NEAR wallet or app. Deposits and other networks may still be open, so other chains may still offer a way out.

A closed withdrawal route is the first thing a venue shows publicly when something is off, and most of these pauses turn out to be routine maintenance.

Bitcoin longs take a $7.2M forced flush

A one sided flush hit Bitcoin buyers on borrowed money. Over the last 30 minutes, $7.2M of $BTC long positions were closed by force across the major venues, as their collateral stopped covering the move against them.

Short positions, the bets on a lower price, lost just $45.0K in the same window. The pressure landed almost entirely on leveraged buyers.

The count comes from the raw liquidation streams of the major venues.

SOXL longs take a $1.7M forced flush

SOXL longs just took a $1.7M flush. Over the past 30 minutes, the major venues closed $1.7M of $SOXL long positions by force, bets on a higher price that ran out of collateral to cover the move against them.

The short side, traders positioned for a fall, saw only $15.5K liquidated in the same half hour. Almost the entire bill fell on buyers.

The count comes from the raw liquidation streams of the major venues.

Liquidations drop 51.8% as Ether shorts pay

Tuesday was a lighter day for leveraged traders. Our streams recorded $137.0M of forced closures on Nov 3, down 51.8% from $284.4M on Nov 2 and well below the $288.6M seven day average. Across 11 venues, 847 symbols and 47,182 events, longs took $73.6M (53.7%) and shorts $63.4M.

Ether split from the rest. Its shorts lost $18.5M and its longs $9.6M, out of $28.1M in total. Bitcoin led the day at $37.1M, with buyers on borrowed money carrying $23.1M of it and shorts $14.1M.

$ZEC was third at $5.5M, also tilted against shorts at $3.9M. These totals are a floor from the venues' public streams.

Paradex goes into maintenance mode

Paradex has switched its own status endpoint to maintenance. Our poll, which checks the venue every 5 minutes, picked up the change.

Until Paradex reports ok again, orders may be rejected. That matters most for anyone with open positions on the venue, since an order to adjust or close them may not go through while the maintenance lasts.

The alert clears once the venue's own status returns to ok.

Stock perp liquidations fell 67% on Nov 3

Forced closures on Binance's stock and commodity perpetuals fell 67% on Nov 3, to $28.08M from $86.01M the day before. Traders using leverage to bet on higher prices still took most of the hits, with the split at 68% longs / 32% shorts.

Longs lost $19.0M and shorts $9.1M, across 187 contracts and 7,326 liquidation events in our recorded stream. That is a floor, not the whole market.

SanDisk (SNDK) led with $4.33M, ahead of crude oil (CL) at $3.72M and SOXL at $3.33M. The largest single position closed by force was $386K in silver (XAG).

Bitcoin longs on Binance pay 10.95% a year

Leveraged Bitcoin longs on Binance were paying 10.95% a year in funding to keep their bets open in the Nov 4 read at 05:25 UTC. Borrowing $BTC itself on margin at the same exchange cost 0.5% a year.

That left a recorded gap of 10.45% between what longs pay and what the coin costs to borrow, the widest of the 15 assets we track across three venues.

Dollars were the pricier loan. The median USDT margin rate came to 5.1% a year, with Bybit the cheapest at 3.95% and Binance the most expensive at 5.83%.

Trade flow runs more lopsided than usual

Trading has been more lopsided than usual, with the order flow imbalance reading at 0.1563. That is higher than 81% of the last 90 days.

The gauge here is VPIN, which estimates how much of the volume in each slice of trading came from one side, buyers or sellers, rather than a balanced back and forth. Higher readings mean more of the flow arrived in one direction at a time.

The measure does not say which side was doing the pushing, only that one side was. Read it as a measure of how one sided recent trading has been, not as a signal for where price goes.

Insurance funds add back $58.7M in a day

Exchange insurance funds put back +$58.7M in the 24 hours to Nov 4, a +0.85% day, yet the week still reads -8.84%. These are the reserves venues keep to pay for liquidations that close below the bankruptcy price.

The 10 venues we track held $6.98B. OKX, the largest at $2.95B, moved most at +1.41%, with Bybit at +1.32% and Gate at +1.06%. MEXC was the only big fund lower, at -0.09%.

Together they equal 14.66% of perpetual open interest on the coins we track, meaning the money sitting in open futures bets. Each fund is a balance the venue reports, not an audit.

Resting bids thinned as asks stacked up

Resting bids in the $BTC spot book thinned out over the 24 hours to 09:36 UTC on Nov 4, down 33.4% within 2% of mid. Asks within the same range grew 34.4%. Price went the other way, with the mid up 1.5% to $78.4K from $77.3K a day earlier.

Across 21 spot venues, that leaves asks heavier, $138.5M against $125.9M in bids, a -4.8% imbalance.

The biggest walls sit right next to price. There is $33.9M of bids at $78.4K, 0.05% below mid, and $35.5M of asks at $78.5K, 0.05% above. Resting orders can be pulled at any moment, so this is a snapshot of the book, not a forecast.

Big buyers and sellers fought to a draw

Neither side of the big money won the day. In the 24 hours to 10:00 UTC on Nov 4, whale sized buys came to $9.60B and sells to $9.53B across 10,759 large trades.

Buyers held 50.2% of that flow. That is close to an even split and well inside the 45% to 55% range we treat as two sided.

Bitcoin drew most of the action with 6,342 of those trades. It also carried the largest single order of the window, at $24.5M.

Short sellers carry the heavier modeled risk

Bitcoin's estimated liquidation map at 11:00 UTC on Nov 4 leans against traders betting on a fall. With $BTC at $78,582, the heavier modeled exposure within 3% of price sits above the market, where short positions would be forced to buy back.

The nearest of those modeled short levels is $78,859, a small distance over the price.

Under the market, the closest estimated long liquidation level is $78,125. The larger modeled cluster for leveraged buyers sits further down at $74,914.

Litecoin longs pile in as price barely moves

Litecoin led the futures build in the 24 hours to Nov 4, 11:35 UTC. Open interest on $LTC, the value of futures positions still open, grew 7.51% and the price rose 0.99%. Our tracker classes it as longs building, with new leverage well ahead of the move.

$XRP carried the same label, with open interest up 4.74% on a 2.48% gain. $ETH added 3.56% in open interest as price rose 2.77%, and that reading stays quiet.

BNB and Dogecoin went the other way. Open interest fell 1.61% and 1.17% as both prices rose, so traders closed bets into the gain.

OKX and HTX drive a seven contract listing day

OKX and HTX carried the listing day to Nov 4. Of the seven new perpetual contracts first seen in the 24 hour window, OKX and HTX each added three, and Bybit added the remaining one.

OKX's OXY and SMR were the newest, both first seen at 08:52 UTC, after MURATA at 05:52 UTC. HTX listed AXP, NOC and TTMI together in one batch at 04:52 UTC.

Bybit's USDBRL opened the window, first seen at 12:52 UTC on Nov 3.

Put buyers outspent call buyers

Put buyers outspent call buyers over the latest day of options flow, $8.59M against $6.99M. A put pays off if the price ends below its strike, a call if it ends above.

Block trades, large deals arranged away from the public order book, made up 54% of that flow.

The single largest trade went the other way. Someone sold a call for $1.20M in premium, struck at $78,000 and expiring Nov 27, done as a block. The seller keeps that premium and carries the loss if the price finishes above the strike.

xStocks puts 420 stock tokens on chain

xStocks was the only issuer behind the 420 new tokenized stock wrappers we recorded on Nov 4. These are on chain tokens that track a listed share.

The batch landed in equal parts, 42 on each of Arbitrum, BNB Chain, Ethereum, HyperEVM, Ink, Mantle, Optimism, Solana, TON and X Layer.

$ACGL appears as ACGLx on Arbitrum, BNB Chain, Ethereum, HyperEVM, Ink and Mantle. Every wrapper here comes from the issuers' own lists, not from a name search.