Crypto market brief · 2026-11-07

Coinbase discount on Bitcoin reaches 63 days

Sixty three straight days have passed without US buyers on Coinbase paying more for $BTC than traders on the big offshore exchanges. That gap, called the Coinbase premium, compares the price on the main American spot venue with the global price.

The latest daily reading is -0.149%, a touch shallower than the 7 day average of -0.157%. Both sit below zero, and not one day in the 63 day run has flipped positive.

The premium measures a price gap between venues. On its own it does not point price in either direction.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-1730-data-spotlight, data as of 2026-11-07 17:30 UTC

US buyers price Bitcoin under global for 63 days

For the 63rd day in a row, a $BTC costs less on Coinbase than on the big offshore exchanges. US buyers on the main American venue keep paying under the global price, and the streak has not broken once in that run.

The gap, known as the Coinbase premium, reads -0.149% on the latest reading. Its 7 day average is -0.157%, so the newest reading is close to the past week's norm rather than an outlier within the streak.

The premium measures how US demand prices Bitcoin against offshore venues. It is a reading of where buyers sit, not of which way price moves next.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-0740-data-spotlight, data as of 2026-11-07 07:40 UTC

US buyers trail the world price for 63 days

As of Nov 6, $BTC on Coinbase, the exchange where US buyers trade, had quoted below global venues for 63 days in a row. No session in that run closed on the positive side.

The gap that day was -0.149%, close to its seven day average of -0.157%. Across the last 90 days the deepest discount came on Oct 29 at -0.271%, and the highest reading was +0.032% on Aug 27.

On the futures side, the current quarter contract carried an annualized premium of +5.72% over spot.

Since 2017, days in this very low band saw a median -0.2% BTC move over the next 7d (n=667, base +0.5%, 9y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-1420-premium-daily, data as of 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC

Bitcoin edges up through extreme fear

Bitcoin added 0.60% to $76,144 over the 24 hours to Nov 7, and the crowd still reads the market as extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed index at 25. The week is still down 1.67%.

American pricing hasn't caught up either. US traders have bid $BTC below the global price for 63 straight days.

Bitcoin holds 59.28% of a $2.6T crypto market. Order flow toxicity, a gauge of how one sided trading is, came in at 0.14, the 63rd percentile of 90 days. The biggest leverage move was on $SOL, where open futures bets grew 2.6% as price rose 0.9%, leveraged longs adding.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-0900-daily-brief, data as of 2026-11-07 09:00 UTC

Block trades carried 47% of option premium

Nearly half the money in Bitcoin options over the 24 hours to this morning changed hands in negotiated block trades. That's 47% of all recorded premium, arranged off the order book and then reported to the venue.

More of the premium bought went to puts, contracts that pay if $BTC settles below the strike. Buyers paid $10.1M for puts against $7.4M for calls, across 15,556 recorded trades.

The largest single trade of the past 48 hours was a block that sold $81,000 calls expiring Nov 13 for $764.9K in premium. That seller owes a payout only if Bitcoin settles above $81,000. A $100,000 put expiring Nov 27 drew a $694.8K purchase.

Since 2021, days in this very low band saw a median -0.2% BTC move over the next 7d (n=404, base +0.1%, 5y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-0810-options-flow-daily, data as of 2026-11-07 08:10 UTC

Bitcoin's hashrate dropped sharply in a week

Bitcoin's computing power took a sharp step down in the week to Nov 6, yet it ended that day close to where it stood a month earlier. Our node read the hashrate, the total power miners point at the chain, at 967 EH/s. That is -15.0% over 7 days against only -1.6% over 30 days.

Difficulty, the bar a miner has to clear to find a block, read 148.36T on the day. Blockspace was cheap, with fees at 2.0 sat/vB, and miners took in 416.5 BTC in total revenue.

Since 2017, days in this very high band saw a median +0.1% BTC move over the next 7d (n=631, base +0.5%, 8y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-0540-network-daily, data as of 2026-11-06 00:20 UTC

Hedge funds add longs six weeks running

Hedge funds on CME have added $BTC longs for six straight weeks, going by CFTC positioning for the week to Nov 3.

They are still net short, meaning more contracts bet on a fall than a rise, at -2,591 contracts. That week alone moved them 1,388 contracts toward the long side. Asset managers held the opposite stance, net long 2,403 contracts after trimming 351. Open contracts totalled 17,527.

On $ETH, hedge funds were net short 3,699 contracts in the same report.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-0240-cot-report, data as of 2026-11-07 02:40 UTC

Big money leans less long than the crowd

The largest Bitcoin traders look very different depending on how you count them. By account, 3.29 of them hold long bets for every one holding short. By position size, the figure is 1.87, so the biggest books are much less one sided than the head count.

Across all accounts, 3.04 are long per short as of Nov 7, near the 3.19 high of the past 14 days and well above the 1.37 low. Over the same two weeks Bitcoin lost 5.57% to $75,714.

Order flow leaned the other way. In the 24 hours to Nov 7, sellers hitting the market outweighed buyers by 2,058 BTC. Among alts, Ether carries the heaviest tilt, with 3.63 accounts long per short.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-07#2026-11-07-1700-positioning-daily, data as of 2026-11-07 16:53 UTC

Forced closures shrink, longs still pay most

Friday, Nov 6, was far calmer for leveraged traders than the day before. Our streams across 11 venues recorded $178.6M of positions closed by force, a -80.4% change from the $913.5M on Nov 5 and well under the $406.2M seven day average.

The pain still landed mostly on buyers. Longs lost $111.0M, 62.1% of the day, and shorts $67.7M, across 68,912 events. $BTC led with $30.7M of longs and $12.6M of shorts closed, and $ETH followed at $31.7M. The biggest single hit was $780K ETH on Binance.

These totals come from public exchange streams, so the true figure is at least this large.

Bybit closes SUI withdrawals on SUI network

Withdrawals of $SUI from Bybit over the SUI network are closed on the exchange's own currency list, as recorded in our daily read.

Anyone holding SUI on Bybit and planning to send it to a SUI wallet or app has no route that way until Bybit reopens it.

A withdrawal pause is the earliest public sign a venue gives when something is wrong, though most turn out to be routine maintenance. Deposits and other networks may still be open.

Binance shuts Ether withdrawals on Optimism

Binance has just shut one route for Ether. $ETH withdrawals on the Optimism network show as closed on the exchange's own currency list, logged in our daily read.

Ether held on Binance and meant for an Optimism wallet or app can't leave over that network until the route reopens. Deposits and other networks may still be open.

A paused withdrawal route is the earliest public sign a venue gives when something is wrong, but most of these pauses turn out to be routine maintenance.

XRP longs take a $1.6M flush

Only one side of $XRP paid in the last half hour. Across the major venues, $1.6M of long positions were closed by force. These were leveraged bets on a higher price, shut once losses ate through the margin behind them.

Traders positioned for a fall came through nearly untouched, with just $825.00 of short positions closed in the same 30 minute window.

The totals come from the raw liquidation streams of the major venues.

Stock perp liquidations drop 86% in a day

SanDisk was where leveraged traders on Binance's stock, commodity and index perpetuals got hurt most on Nov 6, with $15.53M of $SNDK positions closed by force. Across the whole group, forced closures came to $45.96M, down 86% from $317.92M on Nov 5.

Buyers carried more of the losses, with the split at 63% longs / 37% shorts. That was $28.9M of bets on higher prices against $17.1M of bets on a drop, spread over 199 contracts and 14,575 recorded events.

$SOXL came next at $7.71M and also produced the day's largest single forced close at $667K. Gold followed at $3.07M.

Binance closes USDC withdrawals on Optimism

Anyone holding USDC on Binance and planning to send it to an Optimism wallet or app has no route that way for now. The exchange lists $USDC withdrawals on the Optimism network as closed on its own currency list, recorded in our daily read.

Deposits and other networks for the same coin may still be open, so the pause covers this one route.

A closed withdrawal route is the earliest public sign an exchange gives when something is wrong. Most of these pauses come down to routine maintenance.

Binance charges the most to borrow USDT

Binance charged the most of the three venues we track to borrow USDT on margin in the Nov 7 read at 05:25 UTC, at 5.88% a year. Bybit was the cheapest at 3.97%, and the median across venues came in at 4%.

The same exchange lent out $LINK for just 0.62% a year. Traders holding leveraged LINK longs on Binance were paying 10.95% a year in funding, the fee longs hand to shorts to keep their positions open.

That left a recorded gap of 10.33% between the two, the widest of the 15 assets we track.

Deribit settles three dated contracts

Only three dated futures reached their end in the 24 hours to 09:15 UTC on Nov 7, all of them on Deribit at 08:00 UTC.

The coin margined $BTC contract settled at $75,957.26 and its USDC margined twin at $75,957.27. The $AVAX contract closed at $8.346.

The week ahead is far busier. 133 dated futures across 15 venues expire in the next seven days. Nov 8 brings 13 Deribit Bitcoin contracts, one Bitcoin contract on Bullish and one AVAX contract on Deribit. Options add 8,048 contracts over the same stretch.

Insurance funds add back $16.6M in a day

After a -8.28% week, exchange insurance funds added $16.6M in the 24 hours to Nov 7, a +0.24% change that leaves $6.92B across the 10 venues we track.

An insurance fund is the cash a venue sets aside to cover liquidations that close below the bankruptcy price, the point where a trader's margin runs out. These are balances the exchanges report, not audits.

OKX holds the largest fund at $2.91B and moved most on the day at +0.44%. Binance came in at -0.02% with $1.86B, Bybit at +0.26% with $1.12B. Together the funds equal 15.06% of the open perpetual bets on the coins we track.

MEXC offers the most Bitcoin leverage at 500x

MEXC lets traders borrow up to 500x on Bitcoin perpetuals, the highest cap among the venues we track, and it applies one single tier to every position size. Phemex sits at the other end at 20x.

In between, DigiFinex, Gate and HTX cap $BTC at 200x, with Binance and Bitget at 150x. Gate splits its limit across 19 size tiers; Binance and Bitget use 12 each.

Across 13 venues and 5,077 contracts, the top 50 perpetuals offer an average maximum of 79.6x. Venues changed their leverage tiers 274 times in the 7 days to Nov 7. The most recent was XT raising B2 from 10x to 20x.

Ask liquidity grew 41.1% in a flat book

The $BTC spot book refilled on the ask side in the 24 hours to 09:37 UTC on Nov 7, and price went nowhere. Resting asks within 2% of mid grew 41.1% over that window. Bids in the same range shrank 9.2%, with the mid at $76.1K both on Nov 7 and a day earlier.

Buyers still hold a slight edge across 21 spot venues, with $144.2M in bids against $140.3M in asks, a 1.4% tilt toward the bid side.

The two largest walls sit almost on top of the price. A $31.7M bid at $76.0K, 0.05% below mid, faces a $35.8M ask at $76.1K, 0.05% above. Resting orders can be pulled at any moment, so this is a snapshot of the book, not a map of where price goes.

Big money splits almost evenly on both sides

Neither side of the big money won the 24 hours to 10:00 UTC on Nov 7. Whale sized buys came to $5.52B and sells to $5.54B across 6,189 large trades.

Buyers held 49.9% of that flow. That sits inside the 45% to 55% range we treat as two sided, and close to its exact middle.

Bitcoin carried most of the activity with 3,877 of those large trades. It also produced the single biggest order of the window, at $17.7M.

Bitcoin leverage boxed in on both sides

At $75,962 on Nov 7, Bitcoin had leveraged traders on both sides of the price. Neither side carried more estimated liquidation exposure within 3% of price on our modeled map.

Above, the first short positions that would be forced to buy back sit near $76,235, and the largest modeled short cluster is at $78,449. Below, the first estimated long liquidations sit at $75,703, with the largest long cluster down at $73,135.

All of these levels are modeled from open interest and leverage, not recorded liquidations.

Cardano futures bets shrink, Bitcoin's grow

Cardano led a modest pullback in futures positioning in the 24 hours to Nov 7, 11:35 UTC. Open interest on $ADA, the value of futures bets still open, shrank 2.77% as the price fell 1.82%, so traders on that coin were closing positions, not adding.

Chainlink followed at -2.45%, then Avalanche at -1.67% and XRP at -1.46%.

$BTC, $ETH and Solana went the other way and were the only coins on the list to add bets. Bitcoin's open positions grew 0.58% with the price at -0.21%. Every coin on the list sat in a quiet regime.

Traders hold $4.96B on stock and gold perps

Traders hold $4.96B in open bets on traditional markets that now trade as perpetual futures on crypto venues, across 234 instruments in the Nov 7 read. These contracts track stocks, gold and similar assets but trade around the clock.

The largest single pile sits in SPCX at $494.20M. Gold (XAU) comes next at $437.88M, then SK Hynix, the Korean chipmaker, at $403.05M.

Trading in these contracts reached $18.22B over 24 hours. Open interest counts the value of positions still open, so it shows where money stays committed. Volume counts what changed hands in the day.

Modeled liquidations box Ether in on both sides

Ether traders on leverage have pain points stacked close on both sides of the $2,241 price as of 13:00 UTC on Nov 7. Within 3% of price, the modeled exposure is balanced, with no side clearly heavier.

Above, estimated short liquidations begin at $2,254, where traders betting on a fall would be forced to buy back. Below, modeled long liquidations start at $2,233, and the deeper estimated long cluster sits at $2,154.

These levels are modeled from open interest and leverage, not recorded liquidations.

Backpack Securities brings MNST to Solana

Backpack Securities brought one new tokenized stock to Solana on Nov 7. The underlying is $MNST, and the token keeps the plain MNST ticker.

A tokenized stock, or wrapper, is a token on a blockchain built to follow the price of a listed share. This one came straight from Backpack's own issuer list, not from a name search.

It was the only new wrapper we recorded that day: one issuer, one chain, one listing.

IBIT drove the Bitcoin ETF outflow

IBIT accounted for -$403.0M of the -$411.9M that left US spot Bitcoin ETFs on the Nov 6 session. The rest of the group roughly netted out, and one fund set the direction for all of them.

The day matched the wider week. The five session net for the Bitcoin funds came to -$1.28B, so the daily and weekly readings point the same way. Ether funds also saw money leave on Nov 6, at -$93.2M.

The Bitcoin funds still held $95.90B in net assets after the session, with $55.70B of cumulative inflows since launch.

Since 2025, days in this low band saw a median +0.4% BTC move over the next 7d (n=120, base -0.4%, 1y of records). History, not a forecast.

Ether edges above yesterday's busiest range

Ether has moved past the range where it spent most of yesterday's session. It trades at $2,243.95, against a top of $2,243.92. Bitcoin is still inside its own range at $75,904.90.

On Nov 6, $ETH's value area, the band that held 70% of the day's trading time, ran from $2,224.91 to $2,243.92. Its busiest price was $2,232.18.

$BTC's band ran from $75,555.68 to $76,202.10, centred on $75,802.84. The session closed at $75,810.10, +0.01% from that level.

Both bands were tight, each 0.85% wide.

Cardano charges the most to move $1.0M

Cardano had the thinnest book of the eight we track at 14:00 UTC on Nov 7. Pushing a $1.0M market order through $ADA gave up 19.3 bps between the quoted price and the average fill. The same order in $BTC cost 0.1 bps.

$LINK came next at 16.7 bps, then Dogecoin at 7.9 bps and XRP at 4.7 bps. On the deep side, Ether cost 0.5 bps, Solana 2.6 bps and BNB 4.6 bps.

On a book this thin, a run of forced orders from either side moves the price further for every dollar it has to fill.

Sellers edge buyers in Bitcoin's spot books

Sellers had a slight edge in the spot order books at 13:57 UTC on Nov 7. Across 21 venues, $147.1M of asks rested within 2% of $BTC at $75,899, against $143.9M of bids, an imbalance of -1.1%.

The single largest orders sat close to price on both sides, a $35.9M bid at $75,861 and a $34.2M offer at $76,013.

Ether's book had the same shape. $ETH at $2,244 carried $90.9M of asks and $88.3M of bids within 2%, an imbalance of -1.5%. Its biggest offer was $21.4M at $2,248, against an $18.7M bid at $2,243.

These are resting orders that can be pulled at any time, not executed trades.

Turkey's bitcoin discount comes from the dollar

A lira buyer paid a touch less for Bitcoin than the rest of the world on Nov 7. The Turkey Premium Index read -0.07% (-7.4 bps) across all six Turkish exchanges we track.

The discount is a currency story. Tether traded against the lira -7.7 bps below the official USD/TRY rate, last set on Nov 6, and the bitcoin price itself added only +0.2 bps. Over the past 24 hours the index averaged -12.9 bps.

The exchanges did not agree. CoinTR was the dearest at +2.0 bps, and Binance TR the cheapest at -14.9 bps.

Ether sellers add depth faster than buyers

Sellers added depth to Ether's spot books faster than buyers in the 24 hours to 15:37 UTC on Nov 7, yet the bid side still carries more weight. Offers within 2% of the price grew 10.8% across 21 spot venues, bids grew 8.2%, and $ETH rose 0.7% to $2,238.86.

That leaves $100.27M of bids against $85.55M of asks, a 7.9% lean toward buyers.

The two biggest walls sit almost on the price. There's $18.04M bid at $2,237.74, 0.05% below mid, and $18.40M offered at $2,239.98, 0.05% above. Resting orders can be pulled at any moment, so this is a snapshot of the book, not a promise of support.

Delta charges WIF longs the least

Delta charges the least to hold a $WIF long on Nov 7, and the gap to the dearest venue is 0.09% per 8 hours, the widest among the coins listed. Funding is the regular payment between longs and shorts on perpetual futures, so the same position costs a different amount depending on where it sits.

$ADA carries almost the same gap at 0.09%, again with Delta cheapest for longs. Avalanche and $DOGE follow at 0.07%, both with XT charging the most.

On the $WIF gap, the modeled carry after fees comes to 88.03% a year, assuming the spread held unchanged all year. That is a model, not a recorded return.

Altcoin index gives back 8 points in a week

Most of the altcoins we track have outrun Bitcoin across the past 90 days, 31 of the 50 in our sample, set against a $BTC return of 16.9% over the same stretch.

That holds the Altcoin Season Index at 62 today, in no clear season. It sits well clear of the 25 line for Bitcoin season and short of the 75 mark where altseason begins. The index is down 8 points over seven days.

The gap inside the sample is wide. BTW leads with +421.8% over 90 days, and UAI trails at -47.6%.

Traders' mood slips deeper into extreme fear

Extreme fear is the market's mood on Nov 7. The Fear and Greed index, one score for how nervous or bold traders feel, read 25 at 19:00 UTC, 3 points lower than 24 hours earlier.

The pool of dollars held on crypto rails shrank too. Total stablecoin supply moved -0.19% over the same day to $293.30B.

Bitcoin's share of the whole crypto market stood at 59.29%.

Spot buys Bitcoin as leverage sells

Cash buyers and leveraged traders pulled $BTC in opposite directions this week. On the US spot venue, buyers who paid the asking price outweighed sellers who hit the bid by +$331M across the seven days to Nov 7, 19:00 UTC.

The global perp market, where traders bet with borrowed money, ended those seven days slightly net selling at -$14M. Most of that selling came late. Perps logged -$223M in the final 24 hours, and spot buyers still came in at +$40M over the same day.

The pressure sits with leverage, not with spot.

Bitcoin outweighs the rest of crypto combined

Add up every other coin, Ether included, and the total still weighs less than Bitcoin. $BTC accounts for 59.29% of a $2.56T crypto market, measured at 19:42 UTC on Nov 7.

$ETH, the second largest, holds 10.62% of that total. The rest of the market is spread across every other token.

There is no 24 hour comparison for this reading. It shows where the weight sat on Nov 7, not which way money was moving.

Every theme basket finished the day higher

Every one of the eight theme baskets we track closed higher in the 24 hours to Nov 7. DePIN led at +4.21% and Layer 2 followed at 3.64%. The smallest gain came from Quantum at +0.84%.

Thirty days tells a harder story. $BTC returned -9% over that stretch, and not a single basket kept pace. Layer 2 came closest at -13.9%, 4.9 percentage points behind Bitcoin. AI was furthest back at -26.2%, trailing by 17.3 points.

Each basket is an equal weight mix of Binance spot pairs, rebased to Jan 1, 2025.

Tokenized stock trading thins as supply grows

Tokenized stocks, tokens that each track one listed share held by a custodian, grew in supply on Nov 7 even as trading in them thinned. Supply at share prices reached $4.04B, +0.23% since the last recorded day.

Decentralized exchange volume came to $107.5M, -64.23% on the day. Binance bStocks is the largest issuer at $1.45B.

The reference share market is closed on Saturday, so there's no fresh price to measure the tokens' premiums or discounts against.

Traders cut open futures bets by 2.56%

Leveraged traders pulled back over the 24 hours to Nov 7. Open futures positions across 27 venues came to $67.82B, -2.56% against a day earlier, with 14.83% of it held on decentralized venues.

Longs took $38.4M of the $55.0M in recorded liquidations and shorts $16.6M, across 34,820 forced closures. $ETH led at $8.1M, and the largest single one was $760.7K on $BTC.

Of the 1,000 largest Hyperliquid accounts by equity, 264 hold open positions, with 41% of their dollars on longs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw -$411.9M net on Nov 6. The biggest resting Bitcoin sell band is $36.4M at $75.6K, 0.05% above mid.

Jupiter traders lean long, GMX sits near even

Two on chain venues told different Bitcoin stories late on Nov 7. Measured by open interest by side, meaning the size of open positions on each side, Jupiter was 85% long and GMX 52%, close to an even split.

Counted by accounts, the big exchanges leaned long across the board. Bitget was 79% long, Binance 75%, OKX 75%, Kraken 74%, Bybit 70% and Gate 69%.

The largest players sat elsewhere. Binance top traders by position were 65% long, Hyperliquid whale notional 35% and HTX elite accounts 32%. From most long to most short, the gap across 11 venues was 53 points.

Few short bets, yet they fill 70.8% of capacity

Bets on a fall are the small side on Jupiter Perps, yet they fill 70.8% of the capacity set aside for shorts on $SOL, the most used market on the venue. Short positions total $19.2M against $75.5M in longs, so buyers hold 79.8% of open bets across $SOL, $ETH and $BTC.

The long side has far more room. $SOL longs use 13% of their capacity, $ETH longs 6.94% and $BTC longs 19.38%, while short use reads the same 70.77% on all three.

The JLP pool that traders borrow from held $782.2M on Nov 7, paying an annual yield of 10.78%. $SOL traded at $89.01, down 1.31% over 24 hours.

Jupiter's SOL market holds the most open bets

The largest single market across Solana's perpetual venues is $SOL itself on Jupiter Perps, with $31.9M held open on Nov 7. That one book makes up most of Jupiter's $47.3M.

Traders holding positions there pay an hourly borrow fee of +0.0016%, a charge for keeping leverage open rather than a payment between longs and shorts.

Across six venues and 290 markets, open positions totaled $216.1M against $255.2M of 24 hour volume. GM Trade leads at $85.0M (39.3%), then Pacifica at $56.2M (26.0%) and Jupiter Perps at 21.9%. Phoenix holds $23.3M, Bullet $4.1M and Velocity $117K.