Crypto market brief · 2026-11-03

US buyers' Bitcoin discount reaches day 59

The US discount on $BTC has gone 59 days without a single break. On the latest reading, buyers on US venues paid -0.185% relative to global exchanges.

The 7 day average sits at -0.188%, so the day landed almost on top of its weekly norm. The gap is holding steady rather than stretching.

This premium compares what US buyers pay for Bitcoin with the price on global venues. It shows where demand is thinner, not which way price goes on its own.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-1730-data-spotlight, data as of 2026-11-03 17:30 UTC

US buyers stay below global price for 59 days

Fifty nine days in a row, US buyers have paid less for $BTC than traders on global venues. The latest gap reads -0.185%.

Over the past week the gap averaged -0.188%, so this reading landed close to its own weekly norm. The discount has not closed on any day of the run.

The premium compares the US price with the global price. A negative reading shows that US demand is priced below everyone else's. On its own it does not point price up or down.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-0740-data-spotlight, data as of 2026-11-03 07:40 UTC

Stablecoin supply shrank $14.2B in 30 days

Stablecoin supply kept shrinking into Nov 2. The total float was $297.60B, down $4.6B over 7 days and $14.2B over 30 days.

On the rates side, the Fed funds rate was 3.88% and the 10 year Treasury yielded 4.94%.

The Fed balance sheet was $6.75T. The reverse repo facility, where money funds can park cash overnight at the Fed, held $5.10B.

Since 2017, days in this very high band saw a median -0.1% BTC move over the next 7d (n=645, base +0.4%, 8y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-0941-macro-weekly, data as of 2026-11-02 00:20 UTC

Bitcoin dips on calmest flow in 90 days

Bitcoin lost 2.14% over the 24 hours to Nov 3, and the order flow behind the move was the calmest in 90 days. VPIN, a gauge of how lopsided and aggressive trading is, read 0.10, the lowest of that span.

$BTC closed the window at $76,566, holding 59.85% of a $2.6T crypto market. The Fear & Greed index reads 26, in fear. US traders bid below the global price for the 59th straight day.

The biggest leverage move came on XRP. Open positions grew 19.3% with the price flat at 0.0%.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-0900-daily-brief, data as of 2026-11-03 09:00 UTC

Coinbase discount on Bitcoin runs to day 59

Coinbase priced Bitcoin below the rest of the world again on Nov 2, and the discount has now run for 59 days in a row. US buyers paid -0.185% under the global price for $BTC that day.

The size of the gap held steady too. The seven day average came in at -0.188%, almost the same as the daily reading, so Nov 2 looked like a typical day in this stretch rather than an outlier.

Quarterly futures, the contracts that settle on a fixed date, carried a premium over spot worth +5.55% a year. Traders holding those contracts paid above the spot price even as American spot buyers stayed below the world price.

Since 2017, days in this very low band saw a median -0.1% BTC move over the next 7d (n=666, base +0.5%, 9y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-0720-premium-daily, data as of 2026-11-03 07:20 UTC

Leveraged Ether shorts get squeezed out

Ether short sellers on borrowed money just got squeezed. In the last 30 minutes, exchanges liquidated $7.8M of $ETH short positions, closing those bets on a lower price once the traders' collateral no longer covered the move against them.

The long side barely registered. Positions betting on a rise saw $125.5K liquidated over the same half hour.

Both figures are position sizes counted from the raw liquidation streams of the major venues.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-1337-event-liq-burst, data as of 2026-11-03 13:37 UTC

$14.1M of Bitcoin longs forced shut

Exchanges just force closed $14.1M of $BTC long positions in a 30 minute window, counted across the raw liquidation streams of the major venues.

These were bets on a higher price funded with borrowed money. Venues shut them automatically once the traders' collateral no longer covered the move against them.

The other side was nearly untouched. Short positions, bets on a lower price, saw only $620.00 liquidated over the same half hour, leaving the pressure on leveraged buyers alone.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-0307-event-liq-burst, data as of 2026-11-03 03:07 UTC

IBIT's outflow outweighs the whole group

IBIT's -$405.3M outflow on Nov 2 was larger than the net for all US spot Bitcoin ETFs together, which came to -$398.6M. The rest of the group was net positive on balance, so the money leaving came through one fund.

Ether funds also lost -$139.8M on Nov 2. Over five sessions the Bitcoin ETFs are net -$711.6M, so the day and the week point the same way.

The Bitcoin funds hold $98.12B in net assets, against $56.58B of cumulative net inflows.

Since 2025, days in this low band saw a median +0.5% BTC move over the next 7d (n=121, base -0.4%, 1y of records). History, not a forecast.

Source: ByKaranteli, https://bykaranteli.com/brief/2026-11-03#2026-11-03-1331-etf-flows, data as of 2026-11-03 13:31 UTC

A $4.4M Bitcoin long was forced shut

The biggest forced closure on Bitcoin in the 24 hours to Nov 3 hit a trader positioned for a higher price. The top hit was a long liquidation of $4.4M on Binance.

$BTC ended the window at -1.62%, last at $77,046. Across the day our collectors logged 2,062 recorded prints of $1K or more.

The liquidation heatmap behind the candles is an estimate. The prints on them are recorded.

Forced closures jump back to the weekly pace

A quiet Sunday gave way to a heavier Monday for leveraged traders. Our streams recorded $281.7M of forced closures on Nov 2. That was up 231.1% from $85.1M on Nov 1 and just above the $268.4M seven day average, so the jump was a return to the week's pace.

Buyers on borrowed money took $221.8M of it (78.7%), and shorts took $59.9M, across 11 venues, 920 symbols and 78,316 events. These are recorded totals from public venue streams, a floor for the whole market.

Ether topped the list at $56.3M, narrowly ahead of Bitcoin at $55.2M. $ETH losses were more two sided, $33.6M long and $22.7M short, against $41.1M long and $14.1M short on $BTC.

Stock perp longs take a $76.3M hit

Leveraged buyers carried nearly all the damage on Binance's stock and commodity perpetuals on Nov 2. They lost $76.3M to forced closures, against $8.7M for traders betting on a fall.

Our recorded stream logged $84.99M in total across 221 contracts and 17,116 liquidation events, split 90% longs / 10% shorts. SNDK led with $16.10M, followed by SOXL at $12.89M and the CL oil contract at $6.74M. The largest single closure was also on CL, at $1.78M.

That total is up 3054% from Nov 1, when the stream recorded $2.70M.

KuCoin shuts USDT withdrawals on TON

The TON route out of KuCoin is shut for USDT. The exchange's own currency list, in our daily read, now marks USDT withdrawals on the TON network as closed.

Traders who keep $USDT on KuCoin and planned to send it to a TON wallet can't use that path until the venue reopens it. Deposits and other networks may still be running.

A closed withdrawal route is the earliest public signal an exchange gives when something is off, but most halts like this turn out to be routine maintenance.

Gate closes BTC withdrawals on BSC

Gate has closed Bitcoin withdrawals on the BSC network. The venue's own currency list marks that route as shut in our daily read.

Anyone holding $BTC on Gate and planning to send it to a BSC wallet has no way out on that chain until the exchange reopens it. Deposits and other networks may still be open.

A closed withdrawal route is the earliest public signal an exchange gives when something is off, though most pauses like this turn out to be routine upkeep.

Bitcoin hashrate drops 10.7% over a week

Bitcoin's hashrate lost a tenth of its strength over the past week, yet it remains well above where it was a month ago. Our node read 985 EH/s on Nov 2. That is a 7 day change of -10.7%, against +11.9% over 30 days. Hashrate is the total computing power miners put behind the chain.

Difficulty, the bar a miner must clear to find a block, read 148.36T on the same day.

On the miner side, the fee rate was 1.0 sat/vB and miner revenue came to 399.7 BTC.

Since 2017, days in this very high band saw a median +0.0% BTC move over the next 7d (n=641, base +0.5%, 8y of records). History, not a forecast.

Binance charges the most to borrow dollars

On Binance, borrowing USDT on margin cost 5.97% a year in the Nov 3 read at 05:25 UTC, the highest of the three venues we track. Bybit charged 3.93%, and the median across venues was 4%.

Bitcoin itself was far cheaper to borrow. OKX lent $BTC at 0.5% a year. Leveraged Bitcoin longs on the same exchange paid 10.95% a year in funding, the regular fee longs hand to shorts to keep their bets open.

That left a recorded 10.45% gap between the two rates, the widest among the 15 assets we track.

Bitget shuts Ether withdrawals on Arbitrum

Ether on Bitget just lost its Arbitrum exit. The venue's own currency list, in our daily read, marks ETH withdrawals on the Arbitrum One network as closed.

The people hit are those holding $ETH on Bitget who planned to move it to an Arbitrum wallet or app. That path is blocked until the exchange reopens it. Deposits and withdrawals on other networks may still work.

A withdrawal pause is the earliest public signal a venue gives when something is off, yet most of these turn out to be routine maintenance.

Bitcoin and Ether futures reach delivery Nov 4

Deribit has 13 dated $BTC futures and 13 dated $ETH futures set for delivery on Nov 4, and Bullish adds one more Bitcoin contract that day. They open a week that holds 107 dated futures across 15 venues.

In the 24 hours to 09:15 UTC on Nov 3, one dated contract settled. Deribit's USDC margined $AVAX future closed at $8.341 at 08:00 UTC.

Options make up the larger count, with 4,987 contracts expiring over the same seven days.

OKX led a 24 hour dip in insurance funds

OKX, home of the largest exchange insurance fund at $2.91B, posted the biggest move of the 24 hours to Nov 3, a -1.11% day. These funds are the reserves venues keep to pay for liquidations that close below the bankruptcy price.

The 10 venues we track held $6.92B in total, a -0.66% day worth -$46.0M and -8.99% over seven days. Bybit changed -0.96% to $1.12B, Gate -0.92%, MEXC -0.11%. Binance, at $1.85B, was the only large fund to tick up, +0.03%.

Together the funds equal 14.89% of open perpetual futures bets on the coins we track. Each balance is what the venue reports, not an audit.

Buyers outweigh sellers in Bitcoin's spot book

Buyers outweigh sellers in the $BTC spot book by a wide margin. Within 2% of mid, resting bids total $204.3M against $116.1M in asks across 21 spot venues, a 27.5% imbalance toward the bid side.

Against 24 hours earlier, bids within that range are up 32.2% and asks are down 23.7%. Over the same day the mid price went from $78.1K to $76.9K, a -1.5% change.

The two largest walls sit tight around price. A $38.8M ask at $76.9K, 0.05% above mid, faces a $31.1M bid at $76.8K, 0.05% below it. Resting orders can be pulled at any moment, so this is a snapshot of the book as of 09:37 UTC on Nov 3.

Whale sellers edged out whale buyers

Sellers with size had the slightly heavier hand in the 24 hours to 10:00 UTC on Nov 3. Whale sized sells came to $6.98B against $6.09B of buys.

Buyers held 46.6% of that money. It leans toward sellers but stays inside the 45% to 55% band we treat as two sided, so neither side ran the day outright.

Bitcoin was the center of it. 4,055 of the 7,185 large trades were in $BTC, and the biggest single order, $41.2M, was on Bitcoin too.

Short sellers carry Bitcoin's nearby risk

Short sellers hold the heavier side of Bitcoin's estimated liquidation map at 11:00 UTC on Nov 3. Within 3% of the $77,100 price, more modeled liquidation levels sit above the market than below it, which puts bets on a fall closest to a forced buyback.

The nearest modeled short level is $77,207, and the largest short cluster sits at $79,545. Below the price, the nearest estimated long level is $76,308 and the largest long cluster is at $74,240.

All of these levels are modeled from open interest and leverage, not recorded liquidations.

XRP traders pile into new longs

One coin stood apart in the 24 hours to Nov 3, 11:35 UTC. Open interest on $XRP, the value of futures positions still open, grew 20.78% and the price rose only 0.55%. Our tracker classes that mix as longs building, a lot of fresh leverage on a price that has barely moved.

Bitcoin went the other way. Its open bets grew 4.06% as the price fell 1.09%, classed as shorts building, and Dogecoin and Cardano showed the same mix at 2.4% and 1.1%.

Elsewhere traders trimmed. $LINK shed 3.39% of its open bets on a 1.29% drop, and Ether, Solana and Avalanche stayed in the quiet range.

Bybit lists three new contracts in one minute

Bybit led the listing day on Nov 3. AKAM, CEG and PFE went live there as perpetual contracts in one batch, all first seen at 10:52 UTC.

BingX added FLOAT and KNTQ at 08:52 UTC, and HTX listed MSCI at 06:52 UTC. OKX's MELI and PEP opened the window, first seen at 12:52 UTC on Nov 2.

No other venue put more than two new contracts live in the 24 hours to 12:30 UTC.

Solana SHOP token trades below its stock

A tokenized SHOP on Solana is changing hands at a -8.33% premium, meaning the token is priced below the SHOP shares it is built to track.

The premium measures the gap between the token's market price on Solana and the price of the underlying SHOP. A negative reading means the wrapper is cheaper than what it represents.

A buyer of the token pays less than the shares cost, and a seller of the token gets less than the shares are worth. The gap shows how the two prices line up. It does not show which way either one is headed.

Ether shorts sit closest to forced exits

Ether's leveraged shorts sat closest to trouble at 13:00 UTC on Nov 3. The estimated liquidation map puts the first modeled short level at $2,285, just over the $2,282 price, and the largest short cluster close behind at $2,291.

Within 3% of price, more modeled exposure sits above, on short positions, than below on longs.

Longer positions had more space. The nearest modeled long level is $2,245, and the largest long cluster sits further down at $2,176. All levels are estimates built from open interest and leverage, not recorded liquidations.

Bitcoin and Ether climb back inside value

Bitcoin and Ether both closed Nov 2 below the band where most of that session's trading time was spent. Both have since traded back inside it ahead of the US open.

$BTC spent the most time at $78,058.48, with the value area (the range holding 70% of time at price) running from $77,177.46 to $78,626.25. It closed the session at $76,791.30, -1.62% from that most traded price, and now trades at $77,577.20.

$ETH's most traded price was $2,286.21, with its value area from $2,262.90 to $2,307.25. It closed at $2,252.80 and now trades at $2,293.50, back inside the band.

Bitcoin buyers outweigh sellers near price

Bitcoin and Ether order books leaned in opposite directions at 13:56 UTC on Nov 3. Across 21 spot venues, buyers had $155.4M resting within 2% of $BTC at $77,369, against $124.6M from sellers. That is an imbalance of 11% toward bids.

On $ETH at $2,285 the tilt ran the other way. $84.8M of sell orders faced $76.3M of bids, an imbalance of -5.3%.

Bitcoin's biggest walls sat right against the price. $36.5M of bids rested at $77,330 and $31.8M of asks at $77,408. Resting orders can be pulled before they fill, so this is size on offer, not trades done.

Chainlink charges the most to move size

Chainlink and Cardano charged the steepest toll for size across the eight books we track at 14:00 UTC on Nov 3. Pushing a $1.0M market order through $LINK cost an estimated 23.5 bps between the quoted price and the average fill. Cardano cost 18.9 bps.

The same order cost 0.4 bps in $BTC and 0.5 bps in $ETH. Solana came in at 3.7 bps, XRP at 4.3 bps, BNB at 6.6 bps and Dogecoin at 8.8 bps.

Thin books cut both ways. A burst of forced closures in either direction meets less resting liquidity in Chainlink and Cardano, so each dollar of it moves price further there than in Bitcoin or Ether.

AGT buyers pile in and pay to stay

Long pressure leads the board in the 24 hours to 15:00 UTC on Nov 3, and $AGT is out in front. Open futures bets on it grew 19.71%, and buyers pay 0.06% in funding, the fee longs hand shorts to keep positions open. Fresh money arriving on a side that is already paying is what crowding looks like.

The strongest short reading comes from $CL. Open bets there fell 19.43% with funding at 0%, so positions are closing without either side paying up.

$XRP added 22.41% in open bets, the second biggest build on the list, with buyers paying just 0.01%.

Even OKX TR priced Bitcoin under the world

OKX TR was the dearest of the six Turkish exchanges we track on Nov 3, and it still priced Bitcoin -8.3 bps under the global dollar price. Bybit TR was the cheapest at -36.0 bps.

The Turkey Premium Index read -0.16% (-15.5 bps), a score of 44 / 100 in the neutral regime. The 24 hour average was -18.8 bps.

Most of the gap comes from the dollar side. Tether bought with lira traded at -11.3 bps to the official USD/TRY rate, and the coin itself added -4.3 bps. It's a price gap, not a trade anyone can lock in.

Sellers outgrew buyers in the Ether book

Sellers added to the Ether spot book faster than buyers in the 24 hours to 15:36 UTC on Nov 3. Offers within 2% of the $2,287.29 mid grew 7.9%, bids only 2.7%, and the price barely moved at -0.1%.

That leaves $93.84M of asks against $87.74M of bids across 21 venues, a -3.4% imbalance toward the sell side.

The two largest walls sit at the same distance, 0.15% either side of mid. Buyers have $16.21M resting at $2,283.86, and sellers have $18.16M at $2,290.72. Resting orders can be pulled at any moment, so this is a snapshot of the book, not a forecast.

Selling stretches 61 perps into oversold

FOGO carries the deepest selling stretch among Binance perpetuals on the daily chart, with an RSI of 21.1 after a -7.2% day. RSI is a 14 day momentum gauge, and 30 or below marks a run of selling pushed far from normal.

It has company. 61 of 399 contracts read oversold on the daily, against 10 at 70 or above, and the average reading across the board is 41.2.

CT sits right behind at 21.4, even though its last 24 hours ended at +0.7%. 0G follows at 22.9 after a -5.6% day.

Most altcoins outran Bitcoin over 90 days

Over the past 90 days, 34 of the 50 altcoins we sample did better than Bitcoin, which itself returned 19.7%. That puts the Altcoin Season Index at 68 on Nov 3. It is 12 points lower than a week earlier and still under the 75 line where altseason begins.

The gap inside the group is wide. BTW leads the sample at +548.3% over 90 days, and APR sits at the bottom with -78.5%.

At 68 the market reads as no clear season. Bitcoin season starts at 25 or below.

Traders' mood drops 11 points into fear

The market's mood lost 11 points in the 24 hours to 19:00 UTC on Nov 3. The Fear and Greed index, one score of how nervous or bold traders feel, reads 26 and sits deeper in fear.

Cash on crypto rails shrank alongside it. Total stablecoin supply, the dollar tokens traders keep ready to deploy, came in at $295.80B, down 0.59% over the same window.

Bitcoin holds 59.27% of the total crypto market's value, so most of the money still in the market sits in $BTC rather than the rest of the board.

Bitcoin holds most of crypto's $2.62T

A $2.62T crypto market, and one coin carries 59.27% of it. That was Bitcoin's share of total value at 19:42 UTC on Nov 3.

Ether comes second at 10.63%. Every other token, from large caps to the newest listings, shares what remains.

No 24 hour change came with this reading. It shows where money was parked on Nov 3, not which way it is moving, and a single day's share can't show money leaving Bitcoin for smaller coins.

DeFi fell hardest across both windows

DeFi was the weakest of the eight theme baskets we track over both windows. It lost 4.89% in the 24 hours to Nov 3 and 26.9% over 30 days, finishing 17.5 percentage points behind Bitcoin.

No basket ended the day in the green. Layer 1 held up best at -1.76%, while AI at -4.06% and RWA at -3.92% finished nearest DeFi at the bottom.

Over the 30 days Bitcoin returned -9.4%, and every basket did worse. Quantum came closest at -16.5%, trailing by 7.1 points. AI at -24.5% had the second deepest loss of the month.

Tokenized stock supply grows, trading thins

More tokenized stock sat onchain on Nov 3, yet less of it changed hands. These are tokens that each track one listed share and trade around the clock, and their supply valued at the share price reached $4.08B, +6.63% on the last recorded day.

Decentralized exchange volume came to $246.7M, -6.18% against the day before. Binance bStocks is the largest issuer with $1.48B onchain.

With the US session open, the median token traded -0.09% from its listed share. The widest gaps were USOon Solana +2.18% and GMEx Solana -1.28%.

Futures bets grow despite Bitcoin fund exits

Money left US spot Bitcoin funds on Nov 2, and yet futures traders added to their open bets in the 24 hours to Nov 3. The Bitcoin ETFs posted -$398.6M in net flow that day and the Ether funds -$139.8M. Open futures positions across 27 venues reached $71.53B, 1.49% above a day earlier.

Forced closures landed on both sides in similar size. We recorded $130.9M over 46,853 events, $71.3M from longs and $59.6M from shorts, with $35.0M on $BTC and an $8.8M single closure.

Among the 1,000 largest Hyperliquid accounts by equity, the 269 holding trades have 42.9% of their dollars on bets for a higher price.

Ether shorts outweigh longs on Jupiter

Ether is the odd one out on Jupiter Perps. Traders betting on a lower $ETH hold $5.2M against $4.6M on the long side, the only market on the venue where the short book is the bigger one.

Everywhere else buyers dominate. Across Solana, Ether and Bitcoin, longs hold $74.6M and shorts $26.8M, so 73.5% of the open money sits on a rise.

The short side is still the tight one. Shorts use 70.75% of the pool capacity set aside for them in all three markets, against 12.13% for Solana longs and 19.79% for Bitcoin longs. The JLP pool backing these trades holds $805.7M.

Solana perp traders turned over $1.73B in a day

Solana's perp venues saw $1.73B change hands in the 24 hours to Nov 3, against $225.9M of positions held open across 290 markets. The money traded in a day far outweighs the money left standing at the close.

Three venues hold most of those open positions. GM Trade carries $92.3M (40.9%), Pacifica $55.4M (24.5%) and Jupiter Perps $50.5M (22.4%). Phoenix has $23.6M, Bullet $4.0M and Velocity $106K.

The largest single market is $SOL on Jupiter Perps at $31.4M, where holders pay a borrow fee of +0.0016% per hour.